Vikings vs Broncos Same Game Parlay: Sunday Night Football SGP
Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Javonte Williams.
Sunday Night Football features two of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Vikings enter Sunday night on a five-game winning streak while the Broncos enter on a three-game winning streak.
Minnesota has managed to find success despite missing Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson for part of this stretch. Denver has turned a new leaf and is finally living up to preseason hype by beating Kansas City and Buffalo.
That leads us to my Vikings vs Broncos same game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
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Vikings vs Broncos Same Game Parlay (+950 via DraftKings)
- Denver First Half -1.5
- Alt. Spread Minnesota +7
- Marvin Mims Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
- T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions
The Broncos offense has been unstoppable in the first half at home as they have gone 5-0 against the first-half spread. In the first half, the Broncos passing attack is among the best in the NFL. It all starts at quarterback, and Denver has a 115.7 first-half quarterback rating with 10 passing touchdowns to just one interception. On the ground, Denver averages 5.3 yards per carry in the first half.
The Broncos have also been stout early on defense. During their three-game win streak, they have held opponents under 225 passing yards per game. This will play well against the Vikings, who rank 10th in Net Yards per Pass Attempt but 28th in rush yards per carry.
Denver’s offense being excellent in the first half and having a defense that counters Minnesota's strength should give it an early edge at home.
In the last five games, Minnesota is 5-0 against the spread. We detailed why the Broncos are great in the first half, but their problem has been the second half. In the second half, Denver’s offense plummets in productivity because its quarterback rating drops to 91.8, and its yards per carry drop to 3.8. Even when Denver wins, the game stays close as three of four Broncos wins have been by three points or fewer.
While Denver struggles to win comfortably, Minnesota keeps every game close as it has not lost a game by seven points all year. Josh Dobbs' play is volatile, but his mobility adds a dimension that plays into backdoor covers. Pairing Dobbs with the multiple Minnesota receiving options gives the Vikings simply too much to stop in late-game situations.
This game will be close, and Denver simply doesn’t play a style that will lead to a multiple-score victory. The only time the Broncos beat this number was when they forced five turnovers against the Chiefs, and I doubt that happens again.
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This pick is why we are on DraftKings. Russell Wilson has thrown fewer than 200 passing yards in each game during the current winning streak. With the passing game limited, parts of the Broncos offense have needed to be phased out.
One of those is Marvin Mims, who has four targets, two catches and four yards in the last four games. If we have Denver being ahead at half, the passing game will play less of a role in the second half. All signs point to the under for Mims here.
With Justin Jefferson out, the Vikings tight end has become the top option in the passing game, and this has paid dividends. With Dobbs at quarterback, Hockenson has received 27 targets and turned those in to 18 catches for 203 yards. The Broncos also havePatrick Surtain II to take away Jordan Addison, which will send more targets to the Vikings' other options.
Dobbs is doing exactly what any backup should do and feeding his best receiving options. If Minnesota is behind in the second half and throwing to catch up, Hockeson is on the top of the list of players who will benefit.
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