Vikings vs Saints NFL Week 4 Picks, Prediction

Vikings vs Saints NFL Week 4 Picks, Prediction article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson (left) and Chris Olave.

  • The Vikings are favored in London to open the Sunday of Week 4 against the Saints.
  • Sam Farley is targeting a player prop as his best bet for this matchup.
  • Check out his pick and breakdown below.

Vikings vs. Saints Odds

Sunday, Sept. 29
9:30 a.m. ET
NFL Network
Vikings Odds
-110o / -110u
Saints Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

It's finally here, the first of the NFL's five overseas games this season. The Vikings and 'home team' Saints both travel to London to face each at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the first of a double header at the home of the Premier League's Spurs, which culminates next Sunday.

Both teams have had struggles this season and in front of a packed stadium in the United Kingdom they'll have a chance to set things right. We have an exciting pick around one of their elite rookies too.

Vikings vs. Saints Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Vikings and Saints match up statistically:

Vikings vs. Saints DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1110
Pass DVOA1511
Rush DVOA318
Overall DVOA2625
Pass DVOA2820
Rush DVOA1331
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The Vikings come into this top of the NFC North but their 2-1 record is tied with the Packers and Bears, meaning they need to keep up winning ways.

Dalvin Cook is listed as probable and on Friday Kevin O'Connell told reporters that he'd be playing. Cook is the key piece of the Vikings' ground game and it's essential he plays.

Justin Jefferson exploded in the season opener against the Packers, but since then he's been schemed against well, with the Vikings star hauling in three catches for 14 yards when guarded by Jeff Okudah last weekend. That'll give the Saints great hope they can lock him down too, but don't be shocked if we see him in the endzone and hitting the Griddy once again.

The Saints come into this game beaten up. We know that Michael Thomas is out of this one, which will add extra responsibility on Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, who himself is questionable.

Jameis Winston's status is also a question mark. He's listed as questionable, but it's being reported that Andy Dalton will start. The Red Rifle actually faced Kirk Cousins in London in 2016 and that game finished a 27-27 tie. Is that a sign of things to come?

Alvin Kamara is also questionable but should play. He was effective last week against the Panthers, rushing for 61 yards on 15 carries. With all the players nicked up, it'll be worth keeping an eye on Chris Olave who excelled with Thomas and Landry both banged up last week.

Betting Picks

From a betting angle, our focus has to be on the Saints rookie Chris Olave, the current front runner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Olave is currently on pace for 1,518 receiving yards this season and he looks like a key piece in this offense.

In the season opener he hauled in all three of his targets for 41 yards but since then he's gone nuclear. In the past two weeks he racked up 603 air yards, which is truly elite usage. In both games he had 13 targets and caught 14 of them in total. That says as much about Winston as it does Olave and it means you probably shouldn't be too worried about Dalton playing under center.

His target share has been 32.5% and 33.3% in the past two weeks and while he's been a huge beneficiary of the lack of health around him, it's clear the team view him as a stud. His receiving yards line sits at 59.5, which is obviously a must-smash, especially given that the Vikings have allowed 275.7 passing yards per game, the fourth highest in the NFL.

It's also worth noting that he's +205 for a touchdown, which also looks like value given that the Saints' main red-zone target Michael Thomas is missing.

Pick: Chris Olave Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Bet to 69.5

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