Commanders vs Rams Prediction, Odds: NFL Week 15 Pick

My NFL pick is on this home favorite. Commanders vs Rams odds have Los Angeles installed as a consensus 6.5-point favorite on the spread with a game total over/under of 49.5.

The Rams are very much still in the NFC Wild Card race and their offense is starting to hum. They had a devastating overtime loss to the Ravens last week, but they continue to play well and will look to take care of business as home favorites in this spot.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have been a very unpredictable team this season. They have major defensive issues but their offense has proven capable of busting out any given week.

Let's preview Washington-Los Angeles and make a Commanders vs Rams prediction.

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Matthew Stafford was dealing with some injuries earlier in the season, as was Cooper Kupp. A healthy Stafford, Kupp and Puka Nacua are finally together on the field and magic is happening for the Rams.

Los Angeles has averaged 34.7 PPG over its last three games and have won three of the last four with the only loss coming in overtime on the road against the No. 1 seed in the AFC (Baltimore).

The Rams have made their way up to ninth in offensive DVOA and are doing so with both facets of the offense. Stafford is playing well enough to have the Rams up to eighth in pass offense DVOA whlie the emergence of running back Kyren Williams has the Rams at seventh in rush offense DVOA. Aiding the Rams' cause this week is that Tyler Higbee is expected to return after missing the Ravens game.

L.A.'s offensive proficiency is bad news for the Commanders. They have lost four straight games and have given up 37.5 PPG over that stretch. The Commanders are dead last in both overall defensive DVOA and defensive pass DVOA.

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Offensively, the Commanders are below their standards from the beginning of the season.

Sam Howell’s turnover issues are starting to bite them and they have only scored 21-plus in two of their last seven games. Howell has the third-most turnovers in the league behind Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs.

The Commanders will be without starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. in this game. Antonio Gibson has been a suitable replacement throughout the year, but it does leave them thin at the position.

The Rams' weak point is their defense. However, the Commanders become much easier to defend in obvious passing situations, which leads back to Howell's turnover issues.

To further illustrate the difference in quarterback performance at this point in the season, take a look at the EPA/play of both quarterbacks since Week 10. Stafford is seventh behind only the elites, like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy (and Jake Browning). Stafford is ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. 

Meanwhile, Sam Howell comes in at 30th behind QBs like Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder.

Finally, the travel to the West Coast makes things just a bit tougher for the Commanders. The Commanders have only left the Eastern Time Zone a couple of times this season, and it has never gone well. They gave up 33 points to the Broncos, 29 to the Seahawks and 45 to the Cowboys.

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I expect the Rams to roll. They are still playing for playoff positioning while the Commanders’ season is effectively over.

The Rams are also playing their best football of the season, particularly offensively. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and company should feast against this feeble Commanders defense.