The NFL season rolls into Week 8, with the Vikings taking on the Chargers on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 8 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 8 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
The first thing I see here: the Chargers have three tackles on the injury report, and none of them were able to fully participate in practice on Wednesday.
Now, an injury to standout left tackle Joe Alt would surely be the biggest loss, but the starter on the other side — Trey Pipkins III — is also questionable.
The Vikings have the eighth-highest pressure rate in the NFL thanks to a league-high 47% blitz rate, and if L.A. is down some significant members of the line, it could put Justin Herbert's night in jeopardy.
While he may have a 66.3% completion percentage against the blitz and the fourth-highest grade in this scenario, according to Pro Football Focus, he's also been blitzed at the 13th-lowest rate. That means we've got a small sample here, along with a relatively healthy line.
I expect Minnesota's solid defense to keep improving as a result, and helping matters is that it's been pretty solid in the secondary, ranking 11th in coverage grade.
We know the Chargers aren't going to scare many people on the ground, and on the flip side, they've been poor on defense and dreadful against the run.
That should mean this Vikings offense should continue to cook under Carson Wentz and get the support they need on the other side of the ball.
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Passes
Jets vs Bengals
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
You might say I'm crazy for waiting on news regarding the Jets' quarterback situation, considering it's meant very little this season, but it's unclear who will take the ball after Tyrod Taylor was limited by injury in practice this week.
I certainly don't think the Jets would elevate Brady Cook from the practice squad to have him start over Justin Fields, but ownership did appear adamant that a change under center was necessary.
You'd have to assume we're between Fields and Taylor, and while some of his numbers are slightly inflated by garbage time, I still want to back New York if Fields is going to get the start.
The team has done a good job against the run in recent weeks, and the defense as a whole looked inspired in a Week 7 loss.
I'll wait and see who we get for New York, but I certainly wouldn't be laying almost seven points off the back of one measly throwback Joe Flacco performance.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs Ravens
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | -280 |
It's pretty hard to bet on this game without knowing the status of Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens' lead man returned to practice this week for the first time since injuring his hamstring in Week 4, and as it stands, the team's lost four in a row.
While his return should mean a lot to an offense that has scored just 13 points in two full games without him heading into the bye, it would seem the issues with this team extend far beyond the quarterback position.
Baltimore has the sixth-worst defense in football by DVOA, and while the schedule hasn't been the easiest, there's a clear trend developing here.
The good news is that Chicago has struggled on defense for much of the season as well, so there's certainly a world where Baltimore just out-slugs its opponent here in a high-scoring game.
There's also a world where the Ravens' defense plays with some unquantifiable juice coming off a bye with their quarterback returning to the lineup.
There's also a world where Jackson doesn't even play.
Too many worlds.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -400 |
The Giants' defense didn't exactly shine last week against a so-so Broncos offense, and now things could get even worse with Brian Burns banged up. The veteran has been one of their best edge rushers, and a reason why their defensive line ranks ninth in pass-rushing grade according to PFF.
We know the Eagles' line has been up-and-down, but it hasn't stopped Jalen Hurts from posting a 91.2 passer rating under pressure. You certainly don't want to make his job any easier, and it would seem an injury to Burns — along with a couple of other names up front — is going to put the Giants at a disadvantage.
I don't think lightning will strike twice here, not with Giants QB Jaxson Dart coming off a very shaky 15-of-33 day against a comparable Broncos secondary.
New York shouldn't be able to lean on the run, considering nobody's been able to do that lately against Philly, and if Dart's meant to beat the Eagles, he should fall short.
Bills vs Panthers
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 46 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 46 -110o / -110u | +310 |
The Panthers have been running all over everyone this season, ranking eighth with 4.7 yards per carry and third with 140.1 yards per game. That makes for a very interesting matchup at home with the Bills, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and rank dead last in DVOA.
Interesting is the right word, because there's much I don't really grasp about the Panthers. Their defense has held up somewhat, but it's been dreadful in third- and fourth-down situations. It's at least been significantly better against the run, which is good, considering the Bills run with the second-highest frequency. But are we sure anyone can stop Buffalo's ground game right now?
I don't know if I love the Panthers here, but the matchup should be right for the offense. You just have to hope Josh Allen doesn't decide to throw 40 times.
Verdict: Lean Panthers +7.5
Dolphins vs Falcons
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
The Dolphins' offense took a huge tumble down the ranks after they were held out of the end zone by the Cleveland Browns last week, but it was a rather explainable performance. Cleveland's got a stellar pass rush, and Miami's not only got a terrible line but a quarterback who has been awful under pressure this season.
That's a lot of what led to Tua Tagovailoa's three interceptions, and the good news was that the ground game looked competent. What's clear by now is that Tagovailoa is going to need time to throw, as evidenced by his wildly inefficient 12-of-23 passing. While he's currently got the fourth-shortest mark in the league, the Falcons rank just 19th in this category with a lackluster pass rush.
Now, Atlanta has been excellent against the pass, but it's failed to get to the quarterback and has also sat in the bottom 10 in DVOA against the run. That leads me to believe there's the slightest glimmer of hope here for the Dolphins' offense, but you won't catch me dead betting on this defense to stop Michael Penix and company.
Verdict: Lean Over 44.5
Buccaneers vs Saints
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Well, I had just flagged Spencer Rattler as a target last week, amid the youngster's continued development this season, and then he went out and threw three picks against the Bears. To be fair, Chicago's now running the highest takeaway rate in football, so perhaps we can lay off Rattler a bit.
However, we do have to focus on him after New Orleans carried 17 times for just 44 yards last weekend. That was a bad defense that has solely been buoyed by the takeaways, and now the task at hand gets even tougher against a complete Buccaneers unit.
I'm just not sure why this number is down to 4.5; perhaps the market doesn't agree that QB Baker Mayfield will play in this one. He was at least able to participate in practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday, and the team at least has a sound defense, which has been nails against the run and ranks just outside the top 10 in interception rate.
I feel like it's something of an overreaction to immediately hop off the Rattler wagon, but this number may be too good to pass up on.
Verdict: Lean Buccaneers -4.5
Titans vs Colts
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
It seems Week 5 was a flash in the pan, and the Titans' offense has reverted to its ineffectiveness. We can give them a pass for struggling against a strong Patriots defense, but can we say the same thing about the Raiders? What about Tennessee's scoring output up until its first win?
The Titans' awful defense has forced them to throw the second-most in the league, but they've managed just 5.7 yards per attempt, thanks to a league-worst 57.6% completion rate.
Quarterback Cam Ward has completed a higher percentage of passes in the last two weeks and hasn't turned the ball over very much, but he's been sacked a bunch and pressured at the eighth-highest clip in the NFL.
Indy's defensive line ranks seventh in pressure rate, meanwhile, and fifth in quarterback hits. So, while the secondary has sat in the middle of the league against the pass and may be down two standout corners, I still don't think Tennessee has proven it can move the ball through the air.
Ward should be hurried all game long, and another 21-point win could beckon for the home team. This is a huge line, though, and Ward has technically been getting better. My lean would be towards offense.
Verdict: Lean Over 47
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NFL Week 8 Picks
Browns vs Patriots
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
This one should take the opposite form of Cleveland's Week 7 win over Miami, considering the Browns will go from one of the worst quarterbacks in the league against the blitz to arguably the best.
The Patriots' Drake Maye owns a 75.4% completion percentage against the blitz, which is second only to Lamar Jackson, and PFF grades him as the third-best at his position under pressure. That's a big feather in his cap as he steps to what's arguably the best pass rush in football, and it also should open things up against a defense that is just 14th in DVOA against the pass.
I'm not a huge fan of this Browns offense, even if I do like QB Dillon Gabriel a bit, and this Patriots defense has been excellent against the run –allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to rank third in the league.
That should make it very tough for Cleveland to get into this ballgame, and if its line isn't able to impact Maye, it could be a long afternoon.
Verdict: Bet Patriots -7
49ers vs Texans
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
I know the Seahawks have an excellent run defense, but come on now. Houston's backfield managed just 31 yards on 15 carries last week, and C.J. Stroud finished as the team's high rusher with 25 yards on two scrambles.
That brings Houston down to 29th in rushing DVOA, so even with several names missing up front for a middling San Francisco run defense, we can't reasonably expect the Texans to rely on anyone other than Stroud here. That might wind up working out for them, considering the 49ers are not only down near the bottom of the league against the pass but missing two elite edge rushers in Nick Bosa and Bryce Huff.
Time to throw has been everything for Stroud, who owns a 111.9 passer rating when protected and a rating of 45.2 under pressure. His line has actually done a decent job, giving him the 15th-best clean pocket rate in football, and the 49ers have ranked second-worst in pressure rate with the loss of Bosa early this year.
That should put the Texans in the clear to throw the ball on this weak defense, and that's enough for me to take them.
We still don't know who's playing quarterback for the 49ers, and in a larger sense, we don't really know many players who are guaranteed to suit up on offense. Christian McCaffrey hasn't been practicing this week, and several pass-catchers are still out.
Verdict: Bet Texans ML (-117)
Cowboys vs Broncos
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Here's the real prove-it spot for Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense, at least to me. Dallas can really move the ball, but has been a bottom-five defense all season long, meaning expectations have to be set high here.
It's not like Denver has played a tough schedule, and you could argue it hasn't faced a good defense with the way the Eagles have started the season. I choose to believe its middling ranks in scoring and yardage are even worse than they appear as a result of that conclusion, so the question becomes just how much damage Dallas can do against the Broncos' defense.
Well, Denver is now without the suspended Dre Greenlaw at linebacker, and after last week, it's slid to eighth in DVOA on that side of the ball. I know, we're looking for any holes we can poke in this defense, but this game should be a bit different.
Denver's faced an incredibly low percentage of pass plays, but that's just about all Dallas does — and it does it well, ranking third in completion percentage and second in yards per game.
I'm not going to let the Broncos' defense scare me off a really solid Cowboys offense, and I'm also not about to assume their offense is good enough to run it up against a bad defense; they haven't done that one time all season.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +3.5
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Sunday Night Football
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | +145 |
We've talked about quarterback pressures a lot this week, so let's do it one more time. Jordan Love, quarterback for the 4-1-1 Green Bay Packers, ranks dead last of 38 qualified passers with a 34.5% completion percentage under pressure.
Against the blitz, he's been much better with a 64.9% completion percentage, and that's because Love hasn't been pressured much this season with the 10th-best clean-pocket rate in the game.
Well, the Steelers may be down near the middle of the league in pressures, but they rank second in Pass Rush Win Rate and fifth in blitz frequency. That means this game should come down to Green Bay's ability to protect Love, and in recent weeks, it's been tougher with several linemen on the injury report.
Only Jordan Morgan was able to get in a full practice on Wednesday, with starters Zach Tom and Aaron Banks nursing injuries, and while the former is trending towards a return, his contributions can't be understated.
I just don't trust this line against a solid Steelers pass rush, and that means Love — who is still without Jayden Reed and may be without Josh Jacobs — may struggle.
Green Bay's defense is sliding a bit, particularly against the run, with Devonte Wyatt also injured, and Pittsburgh has proven by now it can run. I think the stars are aligned for Aaron Rodgers to win his grudge match with Green Bay.
Verdict: Bet Steelers +3
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Monday Night Football
Commanders vs Chiefs
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Just as soon as Jayden Daniels returns from injury, he'll head back to the bench in favor of Marcus Mariota after tweaking his hamstring last week. It should just be a one-week absence, but it could be a significant one with the Chiefs on the schedule.
After opening the season 0-2, Kansas City has now won four of five and limited its opponents to just 17 total points in the last two weeks after a Week 7 shutout of the Raiders and a resounding win over the Lions in Week 6.
The metrics still don't really respect the Chiefs' defense, however, and it's hard to find many bright spots in the overall numbers. They've allowed 4.5 yards per carry, the 10th-most in the league, and opponents are running the fifth-highest completion percentage in football. Now, these throws haven't exactly gone anywhere, but if Washington can establish the run and Mariota can put together a competent performance like he did earlier this season, it has a real shot here.
It's a real possibility for a team that ranks first with 5.4 yards per carry, but the status of wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin will also play a role in how good the offense looks.
I can't make any firm judgments, but I don't think this number is correct. The Commanders may not play a ton of defense, but they can play enough to let the ground game cook.
Verdict: Lean Commanders +12.5
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