Senators vs. Ducks Odds & Prediction | NHL Preview (November 25)

Senators vs. Ducks Odds & Prediction | NHL Preview (November 25) article feature image

Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Holden

  • The Anaheim Ducks host the Ottawa Senators for a Friday matinee.
  • Neither of these teams are among the league's best to start the season, but each enters this contest coming off a win.
  • Nicholas Martin previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Senators vs. Ducks Odds

Senators Odds-137
Ducks Odds+114
Time3 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up to the minute NHL odds here.

The NHL's two worst sides will meet Friday afternoon when the Anaheim Ducks host the Ottawa Senators.

Ottawa has been the NHL's largest disappointment with a 6-12-1 record in the early going of a season in which it was expected to compete for a playoff berth.

Anaheim has been equally bad (6-13-1), but did record its first regulation win of the season in its most recent game.

It's crazy to think Ottawa is worthy of a -130 price tag versus any side in the league right now, but do the Senators hold value as a road favorite?

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Ottawa Senators

The Senators notable offseason additions, such as Claude Giroux and Alex Debrincat, have not paid dividends to this point, but it remains an easy argument to say Ottawa has not been as awful as its record suggests.

Throughout 11 contests in November, Ottawa holds a 50.13 xGF%.

With Thomas Chabot out of the lineup, Ottawa's defensive core is downright poor. That concern is even more significant because the team hasn't been able to finish enough of its high danger chances.

The Senators own a -14.81 goals for above expected rating, and have generated just 3.05 goals per game despite being in the top quarter of the league in most meaningful metrics.

Offensively, Ottawa should still be expected to be in the upper third this season, but the Senators are allowing a ton of chances against and that is the area of concern which is not likely to improve.

The Senators have allowed 3.59 xGA/60 in November, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

The goaltending tandem of Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot has not been the problem, and has combined for a +3.7 goals saved above expected rating.

Talbot projects to start Friday, but the ultimate decision between he and Forsberg doesn't necessarily move the needle much from a handicapping standpoint.

Anaheim Ducks

Ottawa hasn't played defense at a very high level to this point, but has still played markedly better than the Ducks.

Anaheim has allowed the league's worst expected goals against per 60 this season, and that mark has actually regressed in the month of November (4.23 xGA/60).

Losing Jamie Drysdale to a shoulder injury has surely been a part of the Ducks defensive regression.

Anaheim owns the league's worst goal differential (-31), which runs very in line with it's second-worst expected goal differential (-28.06).

Anthony Stolarz and John Gibson have combined to provide somewhat below average goaltending with -4.3 GSAx and save percentages below .900, although playing behind such a poor defense never helps those marks.

It is unclear which netminder will draw the start for this contest.

Senators vs. Ducks Pick

Even without the services of Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris, Ottawa is still skating a considerably deeper roster than Anaheim.

These teams hold nearly identical records, but Ottawa has arrived at that record with a considerably better process and appears due for better results.

It completely makes sense that the Senators are a road favorite in this spot and I believe this is an excellent chance to back Ottawa.

Ottawa holds two lines of offensive talent very capable of exposing Anaheim's suspect defensive play, and the Senators project to carry enough of the play for me to see value backing a regulation win at +114.

Pick: Ottawa Senators 3-Way Moneyline +114 (Play to +105)

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