Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Odds, Picks, Predictions | Copa del Rey Preview
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Odds
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -200 |
| Sevilla Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Atletico Madrid and Sevilla meet on the Thursday for the Copa del Rey quarterfinals.
Atletico Madrid have been in fine form lately, winning their last two matches against Real Madrid and Granada. Diego Simone has his team playing a little differently than in the past, but the result has been Atletico Madrid putting up better underlying numbers than they did a season ago. They've already beaten Sevilla once this season, so we'll see if they can do it again on Thursday.
Sevilla are in peril right now. They have been in such terrible form that they are sitting only one point above the relegation zone at the moment. They did a lot of business so far in this transfer window in hopes of strengthening their squad to get out of the relegation zone, so we'll see if that that makes a difference.
Read on for my Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla prediction.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid have turned into an offensive force this season. They are averaging 1.60 npxG per 90 minutes this season, which is the most they have ever averaged under Diego Simeone.
What Simeone has done is taken Atleti away from the 4-4-2 low block that they've played for the better part of a decade and switched them to a 5-3-2, which has done wonders for them offensively.
The 5-3-2 allows them to do two things offensively. The first one is to create overloads in wide areas. This allows Atletico to either send in a cross or enter the box via the wide area for a cutback shot. It also pulls the opposing defensive block out wide, which creates a ton of space at the back of the post for crosses.
The second thing they like to do is use counter-movements, which is when an attacker makes an opposite movement from the ball, dragging a defender with him to free up space for an attacker to occupy the free space and eventually create a chance.
Alvaro Morata is one of the most intelligent tactically minded strikers on the planet. He gets a lot of flack for his poor finishing, but he is elite at doing this and is another reason why Antoine Griezmann has flourished in this new system.
The defensive numbers for Atletico Madrid have ticked up a little from years past since they are playing more open, but they are still a top four team in terms of expected goal differential.
Sevilla
The more things change, the more they stay the same, and that is very true with Sevilla right now.
Sevilla are on their fifth manager since the start of last season and are still a well below average team in La Liga. The thing is, their progression numbers are actually really good because their top five in xThreat, final third entries and shots, but they are only averaging 1.03 npxG per 90 minutes because they have the lowest xG per shot in La Liga and have also
taken the third-fewest shots from inside the six-yard box.
Basically the only good thing about their attack was Youssef En-Nesyri because he is such a good aerial threat in the box when Sevilla send in cross, which is the only way they create chances.
En-Nesyri is away at the Africa Cup of Nations representing Morocco, which is a massive loss for Sevilla because not only does he lead the team with five goals, but he also leads them in shots per 90 minutes, and is the only attacker over a 0.20 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
They also are a terrible defensive team whether they are defending in transition or in set defense because they are 16th in non-penalty expected goals allowed and dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla
Prediction
I am not really sure how Sevilla are going to score here without En-Nesyri up top. They are barely averaging over one non-penalty expected goal per 90 minutes and Atletico Madrid are really good at defending crosses. Plus Atletico out of possession are going to play five guys across their backline, so Sevilla are not going to be able to overload them when they do have the ball.
Sevilla are the worst defensive transition team in La Liga, while that is how Atletico Madrid thrive offensively.
Atletico Madrid have been in fantastic form at the moment and have been putting up great underlying metrics, while also playing more open. Atletico Madrid have a +0.57 xGD per 90 minutes and recently beat Sevilla in late December 1-0, holding them to 0.3 xG.
I have Atletico Madrid’s spread projected at -1.4, so I like the value on them -1 at -121.
Pick: Atletico Madrid -1 (-121 via bet365)
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