Updated Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our Best Bets, Including Köln vs. Stuttgart
Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich star Sadio Mané.
The third week of Bundesliga matches featured some stunning finishes, highlighted by Werder Bremen scoring three goals against Borussia Dortmund in the final seven minutes to pull off a 3-2 road upset.
Mainz missed its first penalty in nine years, but went on to secure a 2-1 win against Augsburg with a stoppage-time goal from a corner kick. Köln scored a late goal in the final 10 minutes to salvage a point at Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayern Munich steamrolled Bochum in a 7-0 blowout in less dramatic fashion.
This latest slate of matches features a difficult test for Bayern, as it faces a Borussia Mönchengladbach side that has beaten it in four of their last seven meetings across all competitions. That’s the featured Saturday contest at 12:30 p.m. ET, but there are a handful of interesting fixtures prior to that in the main 9:30 a.m. window.
Winless Bayer Leverkusen visits Mainz and winless RB Leipzig hosts Wolfsburg, with both of those expected top-four sides continuing their search for a victory in the German top flight.
So, here are my three best bets on this weekend’s Bundesliga card.
Our Bundesliga Best Bets
Schalke vs. Union Berlin
|Union Berlin Odds||+130|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Schalke has produced just 17 shots from open play in the Bundesliga through three matches, which is the lowest of any team. The club did play down a man against Köln for 55 minutes, but still hasn’t offered much in attack in the two games since against Gladbach and Wolfsburg.
Schalke was gifted two penalties, one in each game against Wolfsburg and Gladbach. The lack of offense through three fixtures will be tested even further when facing a Union Berlin side that was top five in the league last season. It’s one of the last teams you want to face with a shot-production problem, because Union Berlin doesn’t play a high line or press as heavily as others do in the Bundesliga.
The club was top six defensively last year in box entries and crosses allowed, plus it conceded the fourth fewest big scoring opportunities because it wasn’t as aggressive on the defensive side of the pitch.
Another glaring issue early on for Schalke is set-piece defense. Union thrived on set plays last season and Schalke has already conceded 19 shots, as well as 2.56 xG from set pieces, which are the most in the league.
I project Union as a +110 moneyline favorite and would bet them at +120 or better in this meeting.
By The Numbers
- -25 — Schalke has the worst open-play shot differential in the Bundesliga so far this season.
- 18th — Union was last in passes per defensive action last season, so it will be hard for Schalke’s direct attacking approach to create chances.
Dabbundo’s Pick: Union Berlin ML (+130)
Bayern Munich vs. Gladbach
|Over/Under||3.5 (-194 / +156)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Despite Bayern Munich’s total dominance of the Bundesliga in recent seasons, one team has been a thorn in the side of the German giant. And that’s Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The Foals have played Bayern seven times in the last three seasons, dating back to the 2019-20 campaign. Gladbach has won four of those games and drawn one, including a thrilling 3-2 comeback in Jan. 2021. The Foals also enjoyed a 5-0 thrashing of the Bavarians in Oct. 2021 in the DFB-Pokal, plus it produced a 2-1 upset at Bayern back in January in their most recent meeting.
The market opened with Bayern as a 1.75-goal favorite on the Asuan Handicap, which is about where I have Gladbach based on my own projections. Since the open, Bayern has gotten steamed straight across two goals and is now a 2.25-goal favorite based on those Asian lines.
Gladbach is a major positive-regression candidate after last season, when its defense completely collapsed and the attack struggled to finish off scoring chances. For a club that’s often in the European places, the Foals have already shown positive signs under new manager Daniel Farke. A 90th-minute penalty allowed kept them from having three wins in three matches, but they have conceded just 2.8 xGA in three league games thus far.
Bayern is likely to win this match, but the line is an overreaction to its early dominance and Gladbach’s uncharacteristically poor 2021-22 season. Bochum still managed nine penalty box shots to 14 for Bayern last match, so Gladbach shouldn’t be more than a two-goal underdog.
By The Numbers
- +3 — Gladbach finished the 2021-22 season with a -7 actual goal difference, despite this positive xGDiff. Only Stuttgart ran worse from a variance standpoint in the Bundesliga.
- 1.5 — Despite its poor season, the Foals managed at least this many xG in each of their three meetings with the Bavarians last season.
Dabbundo’s Pick: Gladbach +2.25 (-110) | Gladbach ML (+1000)
Köln vs. Stuttgart
|Over/Under||2.5 (-160 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
This is a matchup featuring one of the biggest xG over-performers in Köln going up against one of the biggest under-performers in Stuttgart based on last season’s numbers.
Stuttgart was the only team with worse variance than aforementioned Gladbach. By all accounts last campaign, Stuttgart was an average team in the Bundesliga despite finishing with a -18 goal difference.
Stuttgart was 10th in box entries at both ends of the pitch and had an attack that generated the fourth-most big scoring chances last season. Had it finished more of those chances, the club would have had a higher league finish. The splits with Sasa Kalajdzic on and off the pitch were also significant and they were better at producing shots and chances when he played.
Since losing star striker Anthony Modeste, Köln has struggled to generate consistent chances. The side wasn’t a great attack prior to that, but it has been an average team when playing at even strength. It’s only a 167-minute sample, but Köln had a +0.2 xGDiff per 90 minutes in that time frame.
Given that Köln finished in seventh with a negative xGDiff last season, I think more regression is coming for the club.
By The Numbers
- 105 — Number of minutes Köln has played up a man this season following players getting red cards on Schalke and RB Leipzig.
- -0.1 — Stuttgart has a basically even xGDiff through three games, but it has just two points to show for it.
Dabbundo’s Pick: Stuttgart +0.5 (-125)
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