Atalanta vs. Manchester United Odds, Pick, Preview: Can Red Devils Take Control of UCL Group F?

Atalanta vs. Man United Odds

Manchester United can take a stranglehold of Group F on Tuesday with a win over Atalanta in Italy on Tuesday.

The Red Devils erased a 2-0 deficit when they faced Atalanta two weeks ago, nicking the win with an 81st-minute winner from Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite falling behind early, the Red Devils were by far the better side in the first meeting and will be looking for all three points again to hopefully save Ole Gunnar Solskjær's job.

One thing to keep in mind here is that Manchester United could have one eye on their Saturday matchup with inner-city rivals, Manchester City.

It's been a tough start to the season for Atalanta, who dropped points to Lazio at home over the weekend. The Boys from Bergamo are now in fifth-place in Serie A and also have work to do to progress out of this group. A loss to United on Tuesday would likely put everything on their final match of the group stage against Villarreal.

Atalanta's Defense Remains Vulnerable

Atalanta has had all sorts of problems defensively when they aren’t facing inferior opponents. La Dea have allowed 13.86 expected goals in five matches against Villarreal, Manchester United, AC Milan, Inter and Lazio this season. Things aren't much better in Serie A, as Atalanta ranks 11th in npxG and 12th in big scoring chances conceded. 

La Dea scored on their two big scoring chances against United in their last meeting, but after going up 2-0, Atalanta created just 0.40 xG in the remaining 60 minutes of the match.

Atalanta employs a man-marking system with a very active high press. However, when they face teams that have deadly counter-attacks with lethal finishers like Manchester United, it's a big time problem defensively, as we saw in the first leg where Manchester United out shot Atalanta 22-13 and had more shot-creating actions and box entries.

Manchester United Are All Over the Place

Manchester United is like a roller coaster right now. One day they're coming back to  beat Atalanta in the Champions League, the next they're getting trashed 5-0 at home against Liverpool. However, I do think the match against Tottenham this past weekend shows that this team still has a high ceiling..

Ole Gunnar Solskjær employed a 3-5-2 this past weekend as opposed to the same 4-2-3-1 formation they've been playing forever under him. He paired Edinson Cavani up top with Ronaldo, which really helped the side overall since Cavani at least provides something in terms of pressing and helping out in defense, where Ronaldo does not.

Additionally the return of Raphael Varane was huge for Manchester United's backline to provide some stability with Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelöf out of form.

We will see if Ole Gunnar Solskjær rolls out the same team that beat Tottenham this past weekend and if he does, I like Manchester United's chances of grabbing all three points on the road.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think this matchup favors United and that we will see Atalanta have similar problems defending in transition like we saw in their first encounter.

I have Manchester United projected at -120, so I think there is some value on their Draw no Bet line of -120

Pick: Manchester United Draw No Bet (-120)