Bayern vs. Benfica Odds, Pick, Preview: Portuguese Side Can Challenge German Giants

Bayern vs. Benfica Odds, Pick, Preview: Portuguese Side Can Challenge German Giants article feature image

Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich star Robert Lewandowski, left, and his teammate.

  • Bayern Munich has become an even bigger favorite against Benfica in Tuesday Champions League action, moving from -1300 to -1500 at DraftKings ($150 wins $10).
  • But our projections differ from the betting market, and Brad Cunningham thinks the Portuguese side can keep it within a goal.
  • Get his full updated projections and pick for Bayern vs. Benfica below.

Bayern vs. Benfica Odds

Bayern Munich Odds-650
Benfica Odds+1500
Over/Under3.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | TimeTuesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via DraftKings, last updated Tuesday afternoon. Get live soccer odds here.

Bayern Munich looks to clinch Champions League Group E on Tuesday when it hosts Portuguese side Benfica.

It took them 70 minutes, but Bayern finally got on the board against Benfica in Portugal and then the floodgates opened up. Bayern ended up winning 4-0, which now gives them nine points. Bayern has out-scored Barcelona, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica by a combined 12-0. It is also excelling in the Bundesliga, so Bayern is looking like one of the best in the world once again.

Benfica's loss to Bayern was a tough one to swallow since it held up so valiantly for the first 70 minutes. Now Benfica has to start worrying about potentially not qualifying for the Round of 16 despite thrashing Barcelona 3-0 in its second Champions League match.

A result in Munich would do wonders for Benfica's chances, but another loss would put everything on its next encounter in Barcelona three weeks from now.

Bayern Munich Beginning to Thrive Again

Bayern Munich has been absolutely thrashing everyone in its path in the Bundesliga and Champions League this season. Bayern has 38 goals off of 34.28 xG and has only allowed 8.07 npxG in 10 matches. That’s crazy.

In the match against Benfica, Bayern completely dominated the match from start to finish, winning the expected goal battle 3.18 to 0.84. Bayern also out-shot Benfica 22 to eight and had a whopping 35 touches in Benfica's penalty area. It seems Bayern is finally starting to find its groove under new manager Julian Nagelsmann.

What will be interesting to see is how much stock Bayern Munich will put into this match considering it's Bayern's sixth match in 17 days and it has practically wrapped up the group after just three matches.

Benfica Facing a Tough Task

This Benfica team is a lot better than its showing in the final 20 minutes against Bayern two weeks ago. Last season, the Eagles led the Portuguese top flight with a +35.3 expected-goals differential in only 34 matches. This season, they have a +14.8 xGDiff in only 10 matches on the domestic front.

Benfica has some experience throughout its roster, with Nicolas Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen operating as Benfica's two main center backs. The duo previously played in the Premier League for Manchester City and Tottenham, respectively. Julian Wiegel is Benfica's best central midfielder, and he formerly played for German side Borussia Dortmund.

However, Benfica has struggled in its last two domestic matches, only creating 1.79 xG, so I don’t have much confidence in them slowing down Bayern a second time. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As crazy as it sounds, I think Bayern Munich is still overvalued in this spot. I have Bayern projected at -194 and other projection outlets like FiveThirtyEight only has Bayern at 68%, which equates to -213. So, I'll take Benfica's spread of +2 at +110.

Pick: Benfica +2 (+110 via DraftKings).

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