CONCACAF Champions League Odds and Best Bets: Pumas UNAM vs. Seattle Sounders Betting Preview (April 27)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Sounders standouts Cristian Roldan, left, Jordan Morris and Nicolás Lodeiro, right, celebrate a goal.
- Liga MX side Pumas UNAM hosts Seattle on Wednesday in the opening leg of the CONCACAF Champions League final.
- The Sounders, who enter this affair as +340 moneyline underdogs, are trying to become the first MLS side to win the competition.
- Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and details why he's found betting value on a scoring prop.
Pumas vs. Seattle Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 10:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS1 | fuboTV | Unimás|
|Odds updated via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Continental superiority is on the line when Liga MX side Pumas UNAM hosts the Seattle Sounders of Major League Soccer on Wednesday in the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League final.
Seattle is the fifth MLS team to make the final of this tournament, which has been dominated by Mexican clubs. The Sounders defeated Club Leon in a quarterfinal tie, then took out New York City FC in the semifinal round.
Liga MX teams have won all 13 previous finals, including nine intraleague affairs. However, Pumas is a bit of a surprise in its first final after its semifinal upset victory over favored — and fellow Liga MX outfit — Cruz Azul.
Pumas have reached the semifinals of the modern tournament twice before, back in the 2010 and 2012 competitions. Seattle's lone semifinal appearance came a year after UNAM's second trip.
Pumas Trying to Maintain Liga MX Dominance
Pumas hasn't won a Liga MX title in more than a decade, but qualified for the CCL via its runner-up finish in the 2020 Clausura, the league's fall edition of the championship.
Despite mediocre league campaigns since, the club has been able to recapture that fall form in the CCL. However, tournament leading scorer Juan Dinenno — who has seven goals, including Pumas' last four tallies — is a game-time decision with a calf injury.
And the hosts aren't in great form, winless in their last three games across all competitions, albeit with all of them being played on the road.
Pumas earned a 0-0 draw in the second leg of its semifinal against Cruz Azul, then lost, 2-0, at Atletico San Luis and 3-1 at CD Guadalajara in league play.
Seattle Hoping to Earn Historic Crown
Like Pumas, the Sounders qualified not via league title. Instead, they snagged their seventh CCL berth as the fourth qualifier from MLS based on total points earned during the regular season.
And like Pumas, Seattle's league form has lagged recently with consecutive defeats via a home loss to Inter Miami and road setback against San Jose.
Yet, Seattle's tournament run has been a good deal more dominant, scoring 13 times and conceding only three, while going without a loss in six matches. The Sounders are also as healthy as they've been in 2022, with the return of center back Yeimar Gomez Andrade from injury.
Andrade played 29 minutes against San Jose, though he might not have made the best case for his inclusion. The opponents scored three of their four goals with him on the field.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Usable and applicable data is hard to come by in CONCACAF competitions, and even if it wasn't, the relevant sample sizes are very small.
However, I believe league-versus-league trends can give insight into the attitudes that shape such encounters. Two big ones are at play here:
- In seven games featuring a CCL final between Liga MX and MLS foes, both teams have scored on six occasions.
- And in six matches between those sides played at home venues, the host has never won a meeting.
There's potential for both to apply this time, but for me the stronger lean is toward the first situation.
Both teams have scored in two of the Sounders' three previous away meetings in this tournament, as well as in two of Pumas' previous three home CCL matches. And at -110 odds, you're getting an implied 52.4% probability.
If you're going to play the money line, my lean is toward the draw at +235 odds and an implied 29.9% probability. Seattle has tied all three of its away matches. Pumas have won all three home matches, but two have been close.
However, my lean is stronger on each team finding at least a goal. Pumas' road form will make it think it needs to go forward. Seattle is adept on the counter.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-110)