Everton vs Man United Prediction | Sunday Premier League Match Preview
Pictured: Dominic Calvert-Lewin. (Photo by Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images)
Everton vs Manchester United Odds
| Everton Odds | +175 |
| Manchester United Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -130/-105 |
After the Premier League deducted 10 points from Everton during the international break, the Toffees are in a home run spot at home hosting Manchester United. The deduction has the Toffees now sitting with four points, tied with Burnley at the foot of the table and only ahead on goal difference. The team is legitimately improved and given the quality (or lack thereof) of the newly promoted sides, Everton should still be favored to remain in the Premier League even if the deduction holds.
From an on-field performance perspective (11 matches), the Toffees have a better expected goal differential than their opponent on Sunday. The Red Devils had their most complete win of the season at home against Luton Town just before the international break, but the injury situation continues to create problems for Erik ten Hag.
A full strength Manchester United should be a small favorite at Goodison, but this team is nowhere near that. As a result, Everton is undervalued at home.
Everton
Everton dealt with an early season injury crisis, but the Toffees are almost as healthy as they’ve been at any point this year. The only missing piece from the normal starting XI will be Amadou Onana, who Sean Dyche said is unlikely to feature due to an ankle problem. Idrissa Gueye is the natural choice to slot into the Everton midfield next to James Garner.
The Red Devils midfield is likely to be Scott McTominay, Mason Mount and Sofyan Amrabat, so the lack of ball winning for that group could see Everton win more of the duels to spring quick transition attacks.
The most impressive stat for Everton this season is that despite playing a more aggressive and open style, Dyche’s side is second in big scoring chances allowed and fourth in non-penalty xG conceded. Everton’s entire statistical profile is better than Manchester United's because they have been more defensively solid.
Manchester United
You could squint and say that Manchester United turned in consecutive quality 11-on-11 performances for the first time all season. The opening 30 minutes at Copenhagen before the red card, and the full 90-minute controlled 1-0 win against Luton Town were a glimpse of what could be. New striker Rasmus Hojlund is injured and questionable to play in this match. Christian Eriksen has also been ruled out. The Red Devils did get some positive injury news with regard to the potential returns of Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan-Bissaka as full backs, but the spine of this team through the central midfield and striker is quite limited.
If Hojlund can't play, that gives ten Hag a few options, none of which are great. He could play Marcus Rashford at striker, but the winger play has been lacking already and Rashford isn't nearly as effective when he plays through the center. Anthony Martial hasn't really been a factor this season and Rashford's suspension against Galatasaray in the Champions League on Wednesday also means ten Hag will need to get minutes from Martial in that match.
We've seen Manchester United play a false nine role with Fernandes, and then a three-man midfield of Mount, Amrabat and McTominay behind that. There's a real lack of passing range in that midfield and Everton's approach to play extremely direct and bypass the midfield entirely could turn this into a more up-and-down match than United would want with that midfield construction.
Everton vs Manchester United
Prediction
We now have more than enough of a sample to judge these sides, and Everton has a +0.18 xG difference per 90 this year. Compare that to Manchester United (-0.11) and you could argue that Everton should be rated higher right now, even on a neutral.
The priors cannot be completely ignored, but the Toffees have a full first choice of attacking options available. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Beto, Jack Harrison, Dwight McNeil and Arnaut Danjuma gives them a solid starting group and bench options to turn to in the second half. Those attackers, plus Doucoure, are producing 1.67 xG per 90.
Even at their best, Manchester United was a +0.4 xG difference per 90 team last year. The market still likes United more than I do, and I'll keep fading United until the market properly adjusts.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+100 or better)
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