Liverpool vs. Atlético Madrid Odds, Prediction, Preview: Can Spanish Side Keep it Close in Wednesday Match?

Liverpool vs. Atlético Madrid Odds, Prediction, Preview: Can Spanish Side Keep it Close in Wednesday Match? article feature image
Credit:

Peter Byrne – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.

  • Liverpool is becoming a bigger and bigger favorite for Wednesday's Champions League match against Atletico Madrid, moving all the way from -145 to -165 over the last day.
  • The Reds have been terrific across all competitions this fall, going 3-0 in the most competitive Champions League group and unbeaten in EPL play (albeit with four draws).
  • But Brad Cunningham likes Atletico to keep it close on Wednesday afternoon against Liverpool.

Liverpool vs. Atlético Madrid Odds

Liverpool Odds -165
Atlético Odds +425
Draw +330
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +110)
Day | Time Wednesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+
Odds via DraftKings, updated at noon ET on Wednesday. Get live soccer odds here.

Liverpool looks to wrap up Group B in Champions League action Wednesday when they host Atlético Madrid in a showdown at Anfield.

The Reds escaped Madrid with a 3-2 victory two weeks ago after Mohamed Salah converted a penalty in the 78th minute. They went up 2-0 inside the first 20 minutes, but saw that lead erased via two Antoine Griezmann goals in less than 15 minutes.

However, Griezmann got a red card in the 52nd minute, which basically handed the game over to Liverpool. The Reds are dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment, so we’ll see if they’ll be able to do the double over manager Diego Simeone’s side.

Atlético Madrid desperately needs three points from this match, as they’re tied on points with Porto for second place in the group. Simeone’s team is in great form at the moment even if they don’t have the results to show for it. They absolutely thrashed a good Real Betis side this past weekend, so Atlético Madrid is ready for a trip to England to face the Premier League powerhouse.

Injuries Creating Issues for Mighty Liverpool

Liverpool’s match against Brighton & Hove Albion this past Saturday showed how much those injuries in the midfield are affecting them. Thiago, Naby Kieta, Fabhino and James Milner are either out or questionable for this match against a really good Atlético Madrid midfield. 

From Rob's pass to Leo's finish… 🤤

What a move and what a goal! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/iHez3FS7IT

— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) October 31, 2021

Honestly, Atlético Madrid probably should have won the previous meeting. Los Colchoneros won on expected-goals battle by a 1.94-1.23 margin despite Greizmann being sent off early in the second half. And if you take away the Salah penalty in the 78th minute, Liverpool only created 0.49 xG despite having 10 shots in the victory. Defensive regression is coming for Liverpool as well,  as they’ve allowed eight goals off of 11.05 xG so far.

So, with Liverpool thin in the midfield and really struggling in transition without a lot of their starters, it’s going to be difficult to face a side whose offense is built off hitting teams on the counterattack.

Stingy Defense Continues to Power Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid’s defense is still playing at an elite level. They’ve only allowed 7.23 NPxG in 11 La Liga matches, plus they’re first in shots allowed per 90 minutes, second in big scoring chances conceded and second in box entries allowed, per fbref.com.

The attacking numbers are pretty similar to where they were last season for Atlético Madrid during their title campaign, as they’re averaging 1.34 NPXG per match. However, Los Colchoneros will improve as the season goes along, as they’re fourth in La Liga in shots per 90 minutes, fifth in big scoring chances and fourth in box entries.

Additionally, Atlético Madrid is third in the Spanish top flight in Offensive PPDA and fourth in pressure success rate allowed, so they’ll be able to handle Jürgen Klopp’s patented high press.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a terrible matchup for Liverpool with their midfield banged up and having to go up against an incredible counterattacking side that’s also fantastic at absorbing pressure.

I only have Liverpool projected at +128 odds, so I’m backing Atlético Madrid at +1 on the spread line at -140 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.

Pick: Atlético Madrid +1 (-140)

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