Liverpool vs Sheffield United Predictions, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Mo Salah.
Liverpool vs Sheffield United Predictions
| Liverpool Odds | -1100 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +1800 |
| Draw | +1200 |
| Over / Under | 4.5 +110 / -138 |
Liverpool will answer wins by Arsenal and Manchester City on Wednesday and return to the top spot in the Premier League table if they can defeat last-place visitors Sheffield United on Thursday.
With the full midweek match spread over three days, Arsenal went back above Liverpool with their 2-0 home win over Luton, while City pulled even on points with a 4-1 home victory over Aston Villa. But its the Reds who now have the game in hand, to be played when the Blades come to Anfield.
Sheffield United are all but assured of a return to the League Championship as they approach their 30th Premier League game, facing a 10-point between themselves and safety with nine games to go. But they have looked improved away from home in particular, where most recently they earned a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
Liverpool earned a 2-0 victory over Sheffield United at Bramall Lane on Dec. 6, which was Chris Wilder's first game in his current Blades managerial tenure.
Here is my assessment of Liverpool vs Sheffield United.
Liverpool
Liverpool may not enter Thursday's match in charge of the top spot in the league standings, but they still have their PL destiny in their own hands as they attempt to send out manager Jurgen Klopp in style in his final season on Merseyside.
The Reds will probably be solid favorites in eight of the final nine league matches during their stretch run, the lone potential exception being a tricky visit to Aston Villa on the season's penultimate weekend.
With the stakes so high, losing focus would seem an unlikely problem for a group whose core has experienced races like this before. But there is at least one potential element of a "trap game" present. Three days after this one, Liverpool face a short trip to historic rival Manchester United, who just happened to dump the Reds out of the FA Cup with a 4-3, 120-minute quarterfinal victory played in mid-March.
Even so, they've been exceptional at home against lesser sides, winning all eight of their Premier League home meetings against teams in the bottom half this season and taking seven of those victories by multiple goals. They've been at least 1.5 expected goals better than opponents in six of those eight matches.
Sheffield United
By now Sheffield United have likely passed the point of no return in terms of Premier League survival. But if nothing else, the Blades have become significantly more watchable since Wilder returned to the managerial job in early December.
While the Blades' 1.0 goals per match in league games since the transition is hardly exceptional, it's a solid improvement from their 0.79 rate under previous boss Paul Heckingbottom. More importantly, Wilder's version of Sheffield United has been able to group goals, scoring multiples on six occasions in league play, something they did only twice with Heckingbottom in charge.
But the biggest change agent has been the signing of Ben Brereton Diaz on loan from Villareal. Any doubts over whether the English-born Chilean international is a Premier League-calibre player should be silenced after his impact on the Blades' attack.
It's not just his direct goal contributions, though those are impressive with four goals and an assist in league play, including his brace in a 3-3 draw against Fulham last time out. It's the overall dual threat he brings to an attack that badly needed it. The proof? His new team has scored multiple goals in six of his seven appearances in all competitions.
Liverpool vs Sheffield United
Prediction
As is frequently the case in these uneven matches, the moneyline value that exists to any extent is on the favorite. Think of it this way: Liverpool are already perfect against bottom-half sides already at home. Would you expect them to beat the worst team in the league 12 out of 13 times. Yes, you would.
But we may have arrived at the most bizarre odds of the season when it comes to totals. You climb to 4.5 goals before reaching a wager on the over at plus money. But yes on both teams to score will also give you a 100% return or more.
The latter bet is the play here so long as Brereton Diaz is healthy. His track record of creating and scoring goals for this version of the Blades speaks for itself. And while Liverpool have won all of their home league games against lower-half foes, they also conceded in five of those victories — including the last four.
I'll tie it to a moneyline wager on Liverpool to get the better price of +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability. I'm also still mulling playing Brereton Diaz as an anytime goal scorer (+600 via PointsBet) if he's in the XI.
Pick: Liverpool ML and Yes – both teams to score, same-game parlay (+130 via BetMGM)
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