Man United vs Liverpool Predictions, Odds, Picks | FA Cup Match Preview

Sunday, Mar. 17

11:30 a.m. ET

ESPN+

Man United Odds	+340
Liverpool Odds	-150
Draw	+360
Over / Under	2.5  -211 / +160

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Man United vs. Liverpool on Sunday, Mar. 17 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's FA Cup match.

Man United look to keep their good run of form going when they host Liverpool in the FA Cup.

Manchester United have won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions. They've been pretty fortunate during this run after getting outplayed by numerous teams, but somehow they are still getting wins. They were able to hold Liverpool to a 0-0 draw in the previous meeting, but it was a bit of a miracle that the Reds didn't find the back of the net. They will need a similar miracle here at Old Trafford to keep Liverpool from running away with this one.

Liverpool's hopes of a quadruple will be on the line Sunday after they progressed to the next round of the Europa League, beating Sparta Prague 9-2 on aggregate. The Reds are in a hotly contested Premier League title race, but with it being Jurgen Klopp's final season at the club, any silverware will be memorable.

Read on for my Man United vs Liverpool prediction ahead of the FA Cup fixture.

For Manchester United to be successful in this match they are going to have to play an out of possession structure that they are not used to playing, which is a passive defensive block. Erik Ten Hag wants his team to press high with the sole goal of forcing a high turnover. The problem is once they gamble and it doesn’t pay off then teams have acres of space to run at their back line.

Last season, Casemiro was playing at an unreal level in terms of his ball stopping. He now looks completely washed, so the Red Devils have conceded the fact that they are going to play in up and down basketball type of matches. The problem is if they try to press high against Liverpool, they are going to get beat in transition time and time again.

They tried to sit in a really passive low block that against Manchester City two weeks ago and they ended up losing the match 3-1, conceding 27 shots and 3.3 expected goals.

The injuries across the back line are starting to mount for Manchester United. Lisandro Martinez is already out for an extended period of time and now Luke Shaw, who is arguably their most important player on their back line given his versatility, is now out for a while as well.

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Liverpool are set up perfectly to destroy Manchester United in this match. Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah are fully fit and healthy, which is massive for Liverpool because that is basically where all of their offensive production has come from this season.

There has been pretty massive difference in how Liverpool have played out of possession from the beginning of the year until now and it's allowed them to reach pretty massive heights. At the beginning of the year, Liverpool had little to no ball winning in their midfield, so Jurgen Klopp couldn't deploy his patented high press and Liverpool had to play more passive, trying to cut off passing lanes through the middle, so they wouldn't get exposed.

Everything changed when Wataru Endo entered the squad. Because of his ability to run of days and win the ball at an elite level, Liverpool could press high once again, which led to numerous chances in transition, which is how Klopp wants to play. Since the beginning of November, Liverpool have the best PPDA in the Premier League and have allowed the lowest build up completion percentage in the Premier League. They should be able to pin Manchester United in their own final third for a majority of the match.

Even if Manchester United decide to play passive and dare Liverpool to break them down, Liverpool are well-equipped to do that. Even though the previous meeting ended 0-0, Liverpool ended up taking 34 shots, creating 2.3 expected goals and posting 48 touches in Manchester United's penalty area.

This one is probably going to get out of hand because Manchester United have two options.

They can do what they did against City and in the previous meeting with Liverpool and allow a 80% field tilt and 25+ shots and hope for the best or they can try to press Liverpool with their flawed pressing structure and get exposed in transition. Either way, Liverpool are going to create a boat load of chances in this match just like the did in the previous meeting.

Manchester United though be a little dangerous on the break if Konate doesn’t play and they get Hojlund back up top. Right now, playing Rashford as a true striker isn’t working and if it wasn’t for two penalties against Everton Manchester United wouldn’t have created over one expected goal.

Over their last seven Premier League matches, Manchester United have conceded 21.2 shots on average with Luton Town, West Ham, Everton, Aston Villa and Manchester City all taking over 20 shots. What do you think Liverpool are going to do?

I think this is going to be one way traffic, so I like the value on Liverpool's moneyline at -120.

Pick: Liverpool ML (-120 via BetRivers)