Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Burnley vs. Everton (Saturday, Dec. 5)
Molly Darlington/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Dyche.
Burnley vs. Everton Odds
|Burnley odds||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Everton odds||-106 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+245 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+102/-125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 a.m. ET|
|How to Watch||NBCSN|
Everton looks to steer the ship in the right direction on Saturday when they head to Burnley.
The Toffees had the best start of any team in England, sitting top of the table for the first few weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve been playing terribly, losing four out of their last five matches and falling to eighth in the Premier League table.
Suffice it to say, Everton’s match against Burnley is a perfect opportunity for the club to get its season back on track.
Burnley is off to one of the worst starts in the English top flight. The Clarets have five points through their first nine matches and only four goals to their name this season. They are currently in the relegation zone, making them desperate for points on Saturday.
Things are looking terrible for Clarets right now, as they are 19th in the table. In their last match, they were thrashed by Manchester City, 5-0, and were only able to generate 0.54 expected goals for (xGF) in the match. However, that has been the story of Burnley’s season, as they are second to last in xGF per match at 0.81.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
However, it’s not all bad news because their defense is due for some positive regression. Burnley has allowed 17 goals on the season but only 11.54 xG, which is among the top five in the Premier League.
Although it’s been bad for the Clarets to start the season, they are due for some positive regression, and it could come on Saturday against a struggling Everton.
It’s been tough sledding for the Toffees the last months, as they have a -4.53 expected goal difference (xGD) in their last five matches and are allowing almost two expected goals per match.
Early on in the season, Everton was creating a ton of high-quality chances. However, that has not been the case lately. They have only generated 5.42 expected goals over their last five matches.
Since project restart last season, Everton haven’t been great away from home, losing four of their last seven matches. In those matches they have a -1.74 expected goal differential, so the Toffees are going to need to improve their level of play away from Goodison Park if they want to grab all three points on Saturday.
Projections and Pick
Even though Burnley have struggled to start the season, I think they are slightly undervalued in this match, given how good their defense has been. Therefore, I am going to back the Clarets spread of +0.5 at -113 and would play it up to -117.
Pick: Burnley +0.5 (-113)