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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Manchester City vs. Aston Villa (May 22)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Manchester City vs. Aston Villa (May 22) article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Phil Foden, left, and Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.

The final weekend of the Premier League season is here, with 10 matches taking place simultaneously at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday across the league.

These games will be highlighted by a champion being crowned, as Manchester City can win the title for the fourth time in five years with either a victory or dropped points from Liverpool. The Reds can steal the title from the Cityzens City, but only if the they beat Wolves and City drop points against Aston Villa.

It’s not just the title on the line Sunday, though, as Tottenham can clinch its place in the top four and a Champions League berth with a win or draw against Norwich City. If Spurs lose, the door opens for Arsenal to finish fourth with a home win against Everton.

 

Further down the table, Manchester United and West Ham United are in competition for the final Europa League place. The Red Devils are up two points, but face a difficult away match at Crystal Palace. West Ham travels to Brighton & Hove Albion.

And at the bottom, Everton is safe from relegation, but Burnley and Leeds United are in serious danger. The two are tied on points, with the Clarets hosting Newcastle United and the Peacocks visiting Brentford. Burnley has the favorable matchup and the goal difference edge, but there could be plenty of late drama across England.

Here’s my three best bets for Championship Sunday.

 

EPL Best Bets

Man City vs. Aston Villa

Man City Odds -600
Villa Odds +1700
Draw +700
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 / -135)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
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Only four teams have kept Manchester City at less than 1.0 expected goals this season, and one of them is Aston Villa. The results haven’t exactly been great for the Villans under manager Steven Gerrard, but the underlying numbers are significantly better than those results suggest. 

Since injuries have begun piling up for the Cityzens, the defense has fallen off. City has conceded 8.1 xG in its last six matches, plus the loss of Kyle Walker at right back has made the club look more vulnerable in transition defense. Throw in injuries to Ruben Dias and John Stones, and you’re left with replacement-level defenders who conceded three goals to Wolves and West Ham in consecutive league games.

Villa has the most direct attacking style in the league and doesn’t waste time moving the ball forward. In terms of passes per attacking sequence, the Villans are in the bottom five for fewest passes. Their defense is seventh best in non-penalty expected goals allowed. And while I do expect Villa to struggle to possess the ball, the club should create enough to get on the board.

The Villans also rank top 10 in progressive passes allowed and box entries conceded, so it won’t be as easy as normal for the Cityzens to easily progress the ball into the opposition’s penalty area.

My projection has City winning by 1.81 goals. The Cityzens are also inflated in the market because of their must-win scenario. City probably wins this match, but I will bet Aston Villa catching two full goals because of its underrated defense and counterattacking ability.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Aston Villa +2 (-110 or better)

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Liverpool vs. Wolves

Liverpool Odds -650
Wolves Odds +1700
Draw +700
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 / -140)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
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Liverpool has played as if it’s running on fumes in recent weeks. The totality of soccer it has played appears to have finally caught up with the Reds. They’ve conceded first in each of their last three EPL matches against Spurs, Aston Villa and Southampton.

The Reds also looked out of gas in the second half and extra time against Chelsea in the FA Cup final, plus they played arguably their worst half of the season at Villarreal in the Champions League.

Given that Liverpool has a more important fixture next Saturday via the Champions League final against Real Madrid, you could see some more rotation from manager Jürgen Klopp.

Injuries to Mohamaed Salah and Virgil van Dijk could see Liverpool’s best defender and attacker also miss out on this match. Fabinho is also in doubt. So, while Klopp might give them some brief minutes for match fitness, it’s hard to imagine Liverpool playing with the same intensity as normal.

Throw in the fact the Reds are overpriced in the market and the look has to be to Wolves here. As bad as Wolverhampton has been defensively, it has shown signs of life on the counterattack. Wolves produced 3 xG in two matches against Chelsea and Manchester City, scoring twice.

I’ve been betting against Wolves quite a bit down the stretch, but the price here is too cheap against a Liverpool side that might play this in second gear. Given Norwich was at +130 to score at Anfield, getting +120 on Wolves on the same bet is too cheap. And based on my projections, the plus-2 goal spread should be closer to 1.75 for this match.

Dabbundo’s Picks: Wolves +2  (-110) | Wolves Team Total Over 0.5 (+120)

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Crystal Palace vs. Man United

Palace Odds +210
Man United Odds +130
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
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Crystal Palace has been better than Manchester United, yet the host is the underdog at Selhurst Park.

If you look at xG difference, the Eagles are +0.15 per 90 minutes, while the Red Devils are even in chances created and allowed. I understand United is playing for the Europa League and Palace is playing for nothing, but the Red Devils have looked flat and disinterested in past matches.

United does have a rest advantage, as it hasn’t played in two weeks and Palace had to play Thursday on the road at Everton. However, that edge at the end of the season can also hurt United, as it would have been training for two weeks to play a match away from home with little meaning for the club of its stature.

That said, my projections make Palace a favorite in this match. They’ve been one of the best home teams in the league this year and have already beaten Arsenal, Spurs and drawn City on home soil.

Much like United’s trip to Brighton two weeks ago, which resulted in a 4-0 defeat, I don’t understand how the visitor is favored.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+120 | Play to +100)

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