Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Southampton vs. West Ham

We are in the thick of the Premier League season with a jam-packed schedule of matches before we reach the World Cup.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Leicester vs. Crystal Palace

Cunningham:

I know Crystal Palace has had its defensive issues, but this is a great price on the Eagles against this lame duck Leicester team. 

The Foxes defensive issues have been well highlighted and they have been a bit unfortunate to concede 23 goals off of 13.1 expected, with a lot of that having to do with Danny Ward being awful and having a -5.8 post-shot xG +/-.

But it also has to do with the fact they are conceding way too many high quality chances. Leicester has conceded 15 big scoring chances in nine matches and they have conceded a big scoring chance in every match they’ve played. Then, you look at the injury list. Wilfred Ndidi and Mendy are both out, meaning it’s really up to Soumare, the defensive midfielder, to stop Palace from countering. 

Then, you look at the Leicester offense. They are only averaging 0.97 npxG per match, have created only four big scoring chances on the season and are pretty much relying on James Maddison to score crazy goals because he’s scored five off of 1.2 xG. Stylistically, this is not a good matchup because the teams that Leicester plays well against are teams that will come up, press them high and leave space behind for Tielemens and Maddison to play balls through or progress the ball up the field because Leicester is third in the Premier Legue in offensive PPDA.

Crystal Palace is not that team. In fact, they are playing the lowest average defensive line and are second to last in field tilt. They were just asked to breakdown a low block against Bournemouth this past weekend and were only able to get nine shots and create 1.2 expected goals. Additionally, Leicester has the longest average shot distance in the Premier League. 

Crystal Palace’s numbers this season are really bad. They are dead last in box entries allowed per 90 minutes, 18th in npxG per 90 minutes allowed, dead last in xThreat allowed and 17th in big scoring chances allowed. However, a lot of that has to do with the fact that they’ve already had to play Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle. Against Aston Villa, Leeds, and Brentford only allowed 3.5 xG and this is still the same defense that allowed 0.94 npxG a season ago with the same back line. So, despite the bad numbers this season, I am relying on Crystal Palace to be at least somewhere close to the defense we saw last season. 

I only have Leicester projected at +166, so I like the value on Crystal Palace Draw no Bet at +133. 

Pick: Crystal Palace Draw no Bet (+133)

Leeds vs. Arsenal 

Dabbundo: Leeds is an average team in the Premier League based on almost any metric you look at. Through eight league matches, the Peacocks are dead even in expected goal difference and rank even better if you filter out penalties from the number. Leeds is sixth in non-penalty xG difference per 90 and 11th in xG allowed per 90. The Peacocks haven’t won any of their past five matches despite perfectly solid underlying numbers and that makes this a good buy low on them at home. 

It’s also a sell high on Arsenal after massive back-to-back home league wins against Tottenham and Liverpool. 

The Gunners should be able to possess the ball effectively in this match, but Leeds’ first rank in pressing and third rank in ball recoveries show they’re more than comfortable playing without the ball in Jesse Marsch’s defensive pressing setup. 

My projections make Leeds an underdog by 0.7 goals and I think the Gunners are a bit inflated as a full goal favorite on the road. We’ve reached the peak of the market on the Gunners with this line and even if you just look at raw xG difference per 90, the Peacocks have been a goal worse on a neutral this season. At home, I’ll take the goal and bet them at -120 or better.

Pick: Leeds +1 (-108) (BetRivers)

Manchester United vs. Newcastle 

Cunningham: This Manchester United team is overrated once again. 

First, let’s look at their defensive numbers: 1.49 npxG allowed per 90 minutes (16th in the Premier League), 15.25 shots allowed per 90 minutes (15th in Premier League), 1.68 xThreat allowed per 90 minutes (17th in Premier League) and a field tilt of 46.07% (13th in the Premier League). Those defensive numbers are even worse than last season. 

Newcastle’s offense has not only been the best outside of the big six, but in the entire Premier League as well. The Magpies are averaging 1.93 xG per match, have created 16 big scoring chances (2nd in the Premier League), are averaging over 15 shots per 90 minutes and are also averaging over 19 box entries per 90 minutes. Additionally, they have an xThreat of 1.67 per 90 minutes, which is third in the Premier League. They’ve only played two big six sides and created 1.8 xG against Manchester City (the only team this season to create over one expected goal from open play against them) and only 0.8 xG against Liverpool, but Bruno Guimares, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson did not play in that match.

Defensively, Newcastle is only allowing 1.00 npxG per 90 minutes and is pressing very effectively this season with a PPDA of 8.9. Newcastle has also forced 96 high turnovers, which is the most in the Premier League this season and 10 of those came in the match against Manchester City. Manchester United is 12th in offensive PPDA and pressure success rate allowed.

I have this match projected very close to a pick'em, so I love the value on Newcastle +0.5 at -115 (Caesars).

Pick: Newcastle +0.5 (-115)

Southampton vs. West Ham

Dabbundo: Two Premier League sides that are trending in the opposite directions face off against one another on Sunday as Southampton hosts West Ham. The Hammers have now posted back to back solid performances in the league with home victories against Wolves and Fulham. 

West Ham has a negative goal differential thus far in the league, but remains a positive regression candidate in attack. The underlying numbers looked bad to begin the season, but the insertion of Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta to the front line and the midfield is adding to an already solid defense. 

The defense is third in non-penalty xG allowed, in middle of the table in box entries allowed and has conceded less than 1 xG in each of the past six league matches. 

Southampton have struggled defensively on set pieces for the past few years and that’s one area where West Ham has excelled in years past. The Hammers have a ball progression problem — they’re just 17th in box entries — but Paqueta’s shots and passing have boosted them considerably in the past few matches. 

The Saints have conceded the second most xG from set pieces this season and the Hammers are undervalued to take all three points.

Pick: West Ham +140 (Bet365)