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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs. Chelsea

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs. Chelsea article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Mateo Kovacic.

After a crazy weekend of Premier League action, we are back with another fantastic slate that includes Liverpool vs. Chelsea and Arsenal vs. Manchester United.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They’ll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you’d like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham’s Model Projections


Dabbundo’s Model Projections

Liverpool vs. Chelsea

Liverpool Odds -118
Chelsea Odds +300
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-138 / +110)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Both Liverpool and Chelsea have had disappointing first halves of the season, but only one of these two teams looks like it is anywhere near solving its problems – Chelsea.

The Blues lost to Fulham and beat Crystal Palace in the last two matches, but the underlying performances showed true signs of improvement. The Blues produced 3.7 xG in those two matches and conceded 1.0 or less in both. I think we’ve already reached the bottom of the market and the decline of Chelsea and the upswing and positive regression is nearing.

Meanwhile, Liverpool continue to trend in the opposite direction as the injuries mount. The Reds looked terrible in defensive transition in each of their last two matches against Brentford and Brighton. They followed it up with an away trip to Wolves that saw them lose the xG battle 1.4-0.2. Liverpool may have Darwin Nunez back for this match to aid the attack, but that won’t solve the fact the midfield is healthy and still is unable to effectively press.

Even with its injuries, Chelsea’s midfield is a much better disruptor and its defense is much more reliable given the Reds struggles and Virgil van Dijk’s absence.

We’ve found the bottom on Chelsea, but I’m not convinced the market has bottomed out on the Reds here. Even though Chelsea have taken money in the last week, I’d bet them +0.5 at -110 or better. 

Pick: Chelsea +0.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

West Ham vs. Everton

West Ham Odds -125
Everton Odds +375
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -138)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: The market has stubbornly refused to downgrade the Everton defense, but the Toffees have been terrible at the back for most of the season. Pricing is low on the BTTS market because both attacks have really struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency.

That’s been more a matter of finishing variance though. West Ham and Everton are averaging less than one goal per game each with 15 goals in 19 matches. Both attacks have positive regression coming in the future when you consider that both are producing more than 1.2 xG per match.

West Ham and Everton are both under a ton of pressure to get results in this relegation six-pointer and that could mean a more desperate effort from both sides to take chances and score. The Toffees are the league’s worst defense at stopping crosses and that’s a major avenue of how West Ham want to create chances. The Hammers are fifth in crosses completed into the penalty area. 

Meanwhile, the Toffees are being priced as a poor attack but really they’ve produced at least 1.3 xG in three of the last four matches and are about 14th in most attacking metrics. It’s a mediocre but not relegation-level attack. 

BTTS has been consistently underpriced in Everton matches and it is again on Saturday. I’d play it at -120 or better.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (+100 via BetRivers)

Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle

Crystal Palace Odds +340
Newcastle Odds -118
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -138)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: The Crystal Palace defense continues to be awful against really good competition. In eight matches against the Big Six plus the previous meeting against Newcastle, Crystal Palace have conceded 14.2 xG, but against everyone else, they’ve only conceded 12 xG in 11 matches. 

The last time these two faced off, Crystal Palace absolutely stole a point at St. James Park in a 0-0 draw that ended up being a very up and down type match. There were a total of 5.2 xG created between the two sides, a total of 32 shots were taken and a combined 70 penalty box touches between the two sides occured. 

Newcastle’s offense has only continued to get better and better as the season has progressed and they have been pretty unlucky in front of net recently. The Magpies have only scored four goals off of 7.4 xG in their four Premier League matches out of the World Cup break, including 2.2 xG against Fulham this past weekend.

The first goal is going to be key here for Newcastle and if they get it, Crystal Palace are allowing 2.18 xG per 90 minutes when playing from behind this season, while Newcastle are averaging 2.23 xG per 90 minutes when playing with a lead this season. 

I have 2.72 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on over 2.5.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+116 via DraftKings)

Leeds vs. Brentford

Leeds Odds +137
Brentford Odds +187
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: From a tactical perspective, this match sets up perfectly for Thomas Frank to sit in his low block and counter Leeds. 

The Peacocks have a big problem at the moment and it’s that they aren’t really effective offensively unless they are playing direct. They have the third-lowest build up completion percentage and the lowest goal kick progression in the Premier League.

Leeds are going to be asked to control a majority of the possession and to break down Brentford’s low block, which has been very effective this season. Even though the Bees allow a high number of shots and a high number of passes into their penalty area they are top 10 in big scoring chances allowed, second in average shot distance allowed and are fifth in xG per shot. 

The Leeds defense is downright embarrassing under Jesse Marsch. This season they are allowing 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes, they have conceded 15.9 xG in their last eight matches and they have conceded the seventh-most big scoring chances in the Premier League.

Brentford absolutely pasted Leeds in the last meeting at the Brentford Community Stadium, winning the match 5-2 and creating 2.3 expected goals with nine penalty box shots. Leeds did create 1.7 xG in the match, but 1.3 of their xG came after Brentford was already up 3-1. 

The Bees have been on fire offensively coming out of the World Cup break, creating 6.7 xG in their last four Premier League matches. Thomas Frank’s side always preaches quality over quantity when it comes to chance creation, which is why Brentford are taking the third-fewest shots in the Premier League but have created the sixth-most big scoring chances. 

Plus, Brentford will have a rest advantage with Leeds playing an FA Cup replay on Wednesday against Cardiff. 

I have Brentford projected as a slight favorite at Elland Road, where Leeds really haven’t been that good. They have a -3.0 xGD in nine home matches.

Pick: Brentford – Draw No Bet (+116 via PointsBet)

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