Premier League Exact Score Props: Make These Wagers With Long Odds
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Danny Welbeck and his teammates celebrate a goal against Manchester United.
Predictive Analytics expert Nick Giffen inspired me during the World Cup as he put out exact score projections. I’ve been using Poisson distribution for years to determine my European soccer projections, so if you are someone who likes playing the exact score prop market, this article is for you.
If you’d like to see my Premier League projections along with the rest of the big five leagues in Europe – plus a whole lot more – you can view them here. If you’d like to read about how I determine my projections, you can read about it here.
If you’d like to hear a more in-depth analysis for every single Premier League match, check our soccer podcast Wondergoal.
Without further ado, let’s dive in to the first edition of Premier League exact score bets.
*All odds are from FanDuel
Premier League Exact Score Props
West Ham vs. Brentford
Liverpool vs. Leicester
Pick: Liverpool 4-0 (+1700); 0.5 unit
Wolves vs. Manchester United
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace
Picks: 0-0 Draw (+750); 0.5 units | Bournemouth 1-0 (+800); 0.5 units
Fulham vs. Southampton
Manchester City vs. Everton
Pick: 0-0 Draw (+3200); 0.2 units
Newcastle vs. Leeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal
Picks: Brighton 1-0 (+1200); 0.5 units
Tottenham vs. Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea