Monday English Premier League Odds, Betting Picks: Fade Overvalued Manchester United vs. Southampton (July 13)

Manchester United vs. Southampton Odds

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Red-hot Manchester United continues their campaign for a top-four finish on Monday at Old Trafford as they host Southampton. With Chelsea's loss to Sheffield United on Saturday, Manchester United can leap into the top four with a win on Monday.

Southampton, on the other hand, have reached the coveted 40-point mark, which will keep them in the Premier League for another season. So, realistically, they have nothing to play for in this match.

Manchester United

The Red Devils are the hottest team in England at the moment. Since the restart United has grabbed 13 of a possible 15 points, while outscoring their opponents 15 to three in those matches. Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood have been the men in form for United since the restart.

Over their last five matches, the trio has combined for 13 goals and four assists. They've also maintained a combined 1.47 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

At Old Trafford this season, the Red Devils have been dominant, winning on average by 1.13 xG per match (1.97 xGF, 0.84 xGA). In fact, they've been red hot over their last four matches at home, dominating the expected goals battle 9.71 to 2.51.

With matches against Chelsea and Leicester looming on the schedule ahead, this is an amazing opportunity for the Red Devils to take some pressure off themselves heading into those matches and qualify for the Champions League.

Southampton

The Saints have been in great form since the restart, grabbing 10 of a possible 15 points and posting a +5 goal differential. Those results, however, are a bit deceiving as the Saints have lost the expected goals battle, 8.41 to 7.07 in those matches, although most of that difference was due to their match against Man City, in which they lost the expected goals battle 0.70 to 3.53.

Southampton has been one of the best road teams in the Premier League this season. The Saints rank fifth in expected goals for per match (1.58), sixth in expected goals against per match (1.37) and boast a +3.54 xG differential when playing on the road. They've been especially hot over the second half of the season on the road, winning six of their last nine matches.

The Saints are no strangers to pulling off major upsets. This season Southampton has beaten both Chelsea and Leicester on the road, and most recently upset Man City at home just over a week ago. With a match against Chelsea looming on Saturday, Man United must stay focused or Southampton could pull off another upset.

Analysis

Due their recent form, Manchester United are huge favorites in this match. However, based on my model, I think they are overpriced:

• • Manchester United projected odds: -192 (65.81% win probability)
  • Southampton projected odds: +650 (13.33%)
  • Draw projected odds: +379 (20.87%)
  • Manchester United projected xG: 1.98
  • Southampton projected xG: 0.85

I am going to fade the Red Devils in this match and back Southampton to keep the match close.

Southampton +1.5 (-110)

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