Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Burnley vs. Everton EPL Betting Preview (April 6)
Lindsey Parnaby/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Sean Dyche of Burnley.
- Burnley welcomes struggling Everton to Turf Moor for Wednesday's Premier League showdown.
- The Clarets, who are slight +150 ML favorites, and Toffees are fighting for their lives to stay in the English top flight.
- Ian Quillen breaks down the matchup below and delivers his top betting pick with plenty of value.
Burnley vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-160 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Burnley and Everton meet in a Premier League relegation six-pointer Wednesday at Turf Moor in a game where something has to give.
The hosts have failed to score in their last four contests. They virtually never threatened in their 2-0 home loss this past weekend against Manchester City. And the Clarets have scored multiple goals only once since the start of the new year, which happened in a 3-0 win on Feb. 19 at Brighton & Hove Albion.
On the other side, the Toffees can’t stop conceding away goals, letting in 16 in five games across all competitions since Frank Lampard took charge. By that measure, their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Sunday represented an improvement.
Everton sits 17th in the table, three points clear of the bottom three and four points in front of 19th-place Burnley. Both enter with two matches in hand on 18th-place Watford.
The Toffees won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 soccer line back on Sept. 13 at Goodison Park. Hard as it is to recall, that was Everton’s third league win in a row at the time.
Burnley Finds Itself in Same, Old Position
Ever since their most recent promotion to the Premier League in 2016, it seems analysts tab the Clarets are yearly relegation favorites. And so far, manager Sean Dyche hads led the club to at least annual survival, and occasionally, even mid-table security.
However, this might be Burnley’s toughest relegation scrap yet, even if the points needed to survive might be fewer than the 39 they earned while finishing 17th last year.
That’s partly because Clarets have lost captain and defensive rock Ben Mee at an absolutely critical time. The 32-year-old center back had to depart after 40 minutes at home to Leicester on March 1. His side has conceded 10 goals in the 320 minutes since then.
Although that’s a bit harsh in four matches where Dyche’s men allowed 7.4 expected goals, they were behind on xG in all of them.
On the other hand, it’s worth noting Burnley’s offensive drought has been 50% made up of games against Chelsea and Manchester City.
However, perhaps you’d say the City game was troubling. No matter the gulf in talent, you’d expect a top-flight team that goes down two goals at home inside a half hour to create more than 0.1 xG on the day in my opinion.
Everton Seeking Answers Under Lampard
Of all Everton’s away defeats under Lampard, the West Ham loss might have felt the most unfortunate.
The Toffees nearly matched the Hammers in the advanced metrics, losing on xG by a slim 1.2-0.8 margin in their best away league performance in that statistic with Lampard in charge. They probably would’ve escaped London with a point if not for Alex Iwobi’s momentary lapse leading to the Hammers’ decisive goal on the break.
On the other hand, Everton has still failed to create so much as 1.0 xG in any of their Lampard-era away league fixtures. The two away goals the club actually scored came via own goal against Newcastle United and Mason Holgate’s heavily deflected leveler from distance this past Sunday.
In xG terms, the Toffees’ two best away efforts came in games they had no choice but to chase after trailing early on. This includes their 4-0 quarterfinal loss to Crystal Palace in FA Cup action.
Adding a wrinkle, Lampard faces tough tactical choices. Defensive midfielder Allan will serve the final game of a red-card suspension. And center back Michael Keane will also miss out after he was sent off for a second bookable offense just after the hour mark in Sunday’s contest.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both teams have struggled of late on both ends of the pitch while weathering the pressure of relegation.
Analytically, I’ve looked at a couple different betting possibilities without seeing any clear angles. Intuitively, though, the game screams draw to me. And +225 odds and an implied 30.8% probability is a fair price.
Burnley might have lost its last four games, but has drawn 12 of 28 contests in the English top flight overall.
Everton has just four ties, but three of those came away from Goodison Park. Each of the Toffees’ last two league matches (home to Newcastle United; away versus West Ham United) just about deserved to finish even.
Taking in Burnley’s home matches and Everton’s away games, the draw has hit 32.1% of the time. It’s eight of 21 times if you remove each team’s contests against the current top four in the table and 7 of 18 taking out matches against the top-six sides.
That’s enough for me to put a small wager on it, even if I can’t tell you exactly why it’s likely to finish even.
Pick: Draw (+225)