Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Mohamed Salah, Liverpool Hammer Norwich City in EPL Mismatch?
Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.
- Liverpool welcomes lowly Norwich City to Anfield for Saturday's Premier League matchup.
- The Reds, led by Mohamed Salah, are whopping -900 ML favorites against the struggling Canaries.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the contest below and explains why he's forecasting Liverpool to crush its opponent.
Liverpool vs. Norwich City Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (-115 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
After a sensational result at San Siro Stadium, Liverpool returns to Premier League action Saturday for a battle with 18th-place Norwich City.
The Reds secured a midweek 2-0 victory against Inter Milan in the Champions League, thanks to Roberto Firmino, Mohamed Salah, some solid defending and a bit of good fortune. While this fixture won’t have the same intensity and importance, this is the English top flight, where any game can be tough.
Norwich would get a massive boost from a surprise result, but will Liverpool offer them any chance? Let’s take at the matchup below.
Liverpool Aiming to Reach Top Level
Competing to win both the Premier League and Champions League at the same time is a task reserved for the world’s top clubs. Liverpool has already established it’s capable of pushing for that feat, but it’s going to need near perfection to accomplish just the domestic job.
Perhaps it’s a reflection of the new EPL era we’re in, but Liverpool’s relatively high point total (54) through 24 games just isn’t good enough to push Manchester City. And we know any dropped points from here on out would likely end the race.
With 2.52 points averaged per game, City is just short of an all-time pace that would break its 2017-18 number of 100 points. Of course, the Cityzens are certainly capable of pushing that total. In the 2018-19 season, they edged out Liverpool by a point with 98 en route to the crown.
All of that is to say, Liverpool can’t afford to rest for a second and a dropped point — or three — to the Canaries would be a devastating blow. Even coming off a high emotional investment in Milan, you can expect a Liverpool team that will come in with a purpose and understanding of the task at hand.
Diogo Jota injured his ankle in the UCL fixture, and his absence will be a frustrating one for Jürgen Klopp and company, but the squad is capable of dealing with the injury in the short-term thanks to Salah, Sadio Mané, Firmino and Harvey Elliott.
Norwich Facing Difficult Battle for Safety
At this point, there’s no sugar-coating the position the Canaries are in. With 24 games played, Norwich has just 17 points. Below the side is Watford, which has 15 points but a game in hand, and Burnley just three points behind but three games in hand.
Above Norwich is a four-point gap to Newcastle United, which also has a game in hand. If that sounds bleak, it’s because it is. Norwich is anywhere between -700 and -900 to get relegated, so it’s time to say that earning a result against a team like Liverpool is almost required.
It’s not that it will be easy by any means, but seizing opportunities out of nowhere will be a must for survival. The Canaries won’t get by with grinding out occasional results against fellow struggling sides.
They come into this fixture having found some decent form with two wins, a draw and two losses from their last five, but at this point that would be a baseline total for success and it’ll be a tough ask.
Betting Analysis & Pick
If there’s a difficult team to fade at home, it’s Liverpool. The Reds have won six EPL games in a row at Anfield and have won seven consecutive overall.
Norwich is finding a bit of form, but this is the most daunting place to play in the league, and the advanced metrics back that up. Liverpool’s 1.71 xG/game difference at home is good for second in the league by a wide margin, and Norwich’s -1.12 xG/game differential on the road is on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Despite the midweek contest for Liverpool and an injury to Jota, I’m comfortable backing the host, especially considering Norwich’s combined goal differential against City, Liverpool and Chelsea this year is -22, with zero goals scored overall.
I’ll steer clear of that kind of squad.
Pick: Liverpool -2.5 (-110)
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