Boxing Day Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets, Including West Ham vs. Southampton, on Sunday’s Premier League Schedule

Boxing Day Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets, Including West Ham vs. Southampton, on Sunday’s Premier League Schedule article feature image
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Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Raheem Sterling, second from right, celebrates his goal.

  • Boxing Day in the Premier League has arrived despite several teams dealing with COVID-19 issues.
  • We’ve highlighted four matches here with our favorite picks, including West Ham vs. Southampton
  • Check out below our staff’s best bets on busy EPL slate.

“It’s the most wonderful time of the (Premier League) year…”

Yes, soccer bettors, fans and Action Network friends. We have reached the tail end of the ultra-congested calendar of matches in the English top flight, which means the much-anticipated Boxing Day card highlights Sunday’s affairs.

Three matches — Liverpool vs. Leeds, Wolves vs. Watford and Burnley vs. Everton — have been postponed due to more COVID-19 issues, but we still have several top-flight games taking place on the stacked schedule.

That said, you will find four of the contests featured here, with all nine (yes… nine) of our handicappers delivering their best bets on the busy slate.

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the matchups and see where our squad of analysts have found betting value.

Boxing Day Matches & Picks

Man City vs. Leicester City Odds

Man City Odds -625
Leicester City Odds +1300
Draw +650
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

BJ Cunningham: Manchester City’s defense hasn’t been tested in a while and this is another case where they likely won’t have to expend too much energy. Since the 2-0 home loss the Crystal Palace back in late October, the Cityzens have allowed 3.5 expected goals in their last eight matches.

Since that defeat, the Cityzens have outscored their opponents by a whopping 24-3 margin. Bottom line, this is the best team in the world right now and one of the few EPL teams that’s actually healthy going into the festive fixtures. 

They are back to being the possession dominant side we saw last season, as they’ve held more than 64% possession in their last nine matches. So, for a team like Leicester City that’s  very reliant on creating chances on counter attacks, we could see the heavy favorites have 70% possession in this contest. 

And not only does Manchester City limit high-quality chances, but they hardly allows any chances period, as they’re only conceding 6.4 shots per 90 minutes, which is the best mark among all teams in Europe’s top five leagues, per fbref.com.

The Foxes have put great offensive numbers this season, creating 1.47 NPxG per match, but when they’ve faced a solid opposing defense, they’ve really struggled. Against Chelsea, Wolves, West Ham United, Brentford and Manchester City, which are all top seven in NPxG allowed, Leicester City created only 4.3 xG in those five matches.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -190 odds, so I love the value at -135 odds via PointsBet and will make it my top pick.

Cunningham’s Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-135)

Staff Picks for Man City vs. Leicester City

*Odds via DraftKings

ANALYST THE PICK
Jeremy Pond Player to Assist — Gabriel Jesus (+300)
BJ Cunningham Both Teams to Score — No (-135)
Brett Pund SGP — Man City ML & BTTS (+135)
Nick Hennion 1H Total Over 1.25 Goals (-135)

West Ham vs. Southampton Odds

West Ham Odds -120
Southampton Odds +320
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Anthony DabbundoWest Ham United has hit a significant dip in form the past couple weeks, losing to Arsenal and drawing Burnley in its last two EPL matches.

The Hammers still have some attacking regression coming given their xG numbers from the season as well. They’ve scored 28 goals from 22 xG and Michail Antonio, specifically, has seen a downturn in his shots and production in the last month or so.

West Ham ranks just 14th in xG difference since November began. And a lot of that has to do with less game control and possession numbers, as well as injuries. The club is without its two main center backs — Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna — and hasn’t been able to control matches or prevent chances in their absence.

The Hammers have allowed 1.5 xGA per 90 since November began. That said, they’ve performed like an average EPL team at best last two months. Compare them to Southampton, which is an average team by xG after a slow start and has a +0.06 xG difference per 90 minutes in the last two months.

Southampton has only allowed about 1.18 xGA/90 minutes since October started, but has conceded 1.56 goals per match in that span. Some of that is down to bad goalkeeping, with Willy Caballero performing poorly. However, the Saints should have Fraser Forster back in the lineup for this game.

There’s still room to sell on West Ham as they continue to regress, and this is a good buy-low spot on Southampton following three losses and three draws in their last six games.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Southampton +0.5 (+105)

Staff Picks for West Ham vs. Southampton

*Odds via DraftKings

ANALYST THE PICK
Jeremy Pond West Ham -0.75 (+110)
Anthony Dabbundo Southampton +0.5 (+105)
Michael Leboff Total Over 3 (+130)
Avery Zimmerman West Ham ML (-120)
Brett Pund Total Under 2.75 (-115)
Ian Quillen Total Over 2.5 (-130)
Nick Hennion West Ham -1 (+165)
Matthew Trebby Total Over 2.5 (-130)

Pictured: Tottenham star Heung-Min Son competes during a recent Premier League match. Photo credit: Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images.

Spurs vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Spurs Odds -150
Crystal Palace Odds +425
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Day | Time Sunday |10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Brett Pund: Manager Antonio Conte has Tottenham playing its best soccer of the season, leading me to believe the club will be too much for Crystal Palace in this Boxing Day showdown.

In the five EPL games under the new boss, Tottenham has won the xG battle in every match to post a plus-7 xG difference, according to fbref.com. The 2.06 xG-per-game average is double the 1.02 number before he took the reins.

These improving offensive numbers have caused the total to go over 1.5 goals in all but one fixture during that span, which also includes two high-scoring affairs in the European Conference League.

As for the Eagles, the total has only fallen under 1.5 goals in just three of their 17 league matches, and while I do think they’ve improved a lot under manager Patrick Vieira, their foes are just playing on a different level right now.

Tottenham has also been a solid team on home soil, only dropping points in losses to Chelsea and Manchester United before the draw against Liverpool this past weekend.

That said, I like the Single Game Parlay combining a Spurs victory with the total clearing 1.5 goals at +110 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pund’s Pick: Single Game Parlay — Spurs ML & Over 1.5 Goals (+110)

Staff Picks for Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

*Odds via DraftKings

ANALYST THE PICK
Jeremy Pond Harry Kane To Score Anytime (+105)
BJ Cunningham Harry Kane To Score Anytime (+105)
Anthony Dabbundo Crystal Palace +0.5 (+130)
Michael Leboff Crystal Palace ML (+425)
Avery Zimmerman Son Heung-min To Score Anytime (+140)
Brett Pund SGP — Spurs ML & Over 1.5 Goals (+110)
Nick Hennion Tottenham -0.75 (-110)
Matthew Trebby Crystal Palace +0.5 (+130)

Norwich City vs. Arsenal Odds

Norwich City Odds +750
Arsenal Odds -270
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Nick Hennion: Arsenal was dominant in the reverse fixture at Emirates Stadium on its way to a 1-0 win. The metrics suggest it should have been more lopsided, though, as the Gunners won the xG battle by a 2.8-0.6 margin.

I lean to Arsenal as a side here, but I can’t find a price that makes it worth my while, especially considering how poorly manager Mikel Arteta’s squad has performed on the road this season. The Gunners sit 16th in xGDiff and 20th in total xG against away from home in league play.

That leads me to the prop market, specifically the anytime goalscorer wager. In its last five matches where it has conceded, Norwich City has allowed the opposition’s No. 9 player the highest xG output in four games, per fbref.com.

On the flip side, Alexandre Lacazette — Arsenal’s No. 9 — is due for some positive scoring regression. Against West Ham United & Leeds United, the France international registered 1.1 and 0.9 xG, respectively, despite not scoring in either contest.

Seeing as Norwich City’s defense has declined — the Canaries have conceded at least 1.75 xGA in three consecutive fixtures and at least two big chances in two of three affairs — Arsenal should have multiple cracks at Tim Krul’s goal.

Hennion’s Pick: Alexandre Lacazette to Score Anytime (+140)

Staff Picks for Norwich City vs. Arsenal

*Odds via DraftKings

ANALYST THE PICK
Jeremy Pond Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
Anthony Dabbundo Norwich City — Over 0.5 Goals (-120)
Brett Pund Bakayo Saka To Score Anytime (+280)
Nick Hennion Alexandre Lacazette To Score Anytime (+140)
Matthew Trebby Arsenal — 1H ML (-115)

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