Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace Pick: Betting Odds and Prediction for Saturday Afternoon Premier League

Credit:

Robin Jones – AFC Bournemouth/AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images. Pictured: Junior Stanislas

  • Betting odds for Saturday's Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace match are relatively even, with Bournemouth the slight +150 favorite, Crystal Palace at +195 and the draw at +225.
  • Both teams are near the bottom of the Premier League table, but Bournemouth are only two points outside the relegation zone, meaning they need this win.
  • Below you'll find betting odds, projections for comparison, and a pick on one of the sides.

Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace Pick & Odds

Bournemouth odds +150 [BET NOW]
Crystal Palace odds +195 [BET NOW]
Draw Odds +225 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-148)
[BET NOW]
Time Saturday at 2:45 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The Premier League wraps up Saturday’s matches with a battle between two teams at the bottom of the table. Bournemouth are in the dreaded relegation zone, with only two points separating them from safety. Crystal Palace on the other hand sit in 11th place, with nothing really left to play for having all but secured another season in the Premier League. Coming away with three points is absolutely necessary for Bournemouth with games against Wolves, Manchester United, Tottenham, Leicester and Manchester City on the horizon.

Bournemouth 

Things have been bleak for the Cherries this season as relegation looks more likely than survival at this point in the season. Bournemouth rank in the bottom 5 of the Premier League in all expected goals categories. They’ve been terrible at both ends of the pitch, only scoring 1.18 xG per game and allowing 1.72 xG per game.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


As bad as those metrics are, the Cherries have been slightly better at Vitality Stadium against the bottom half of the Premier League. In those six matches, the Cherries have earned 10 of a possible 18 points. Look for the Cherries to be extra motivated coming out of the break, with a lot of tough opponents on the horizon.

Crystal Palace

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the Premier League. Based on expected points, the Eagles should be 9.05 points lower in the table than where they currently are. Even their current goal differential of -6 is inflated, as they have an expected goal differential of -16.08. One of the biggest reasons for the variance between actual and expected is their defense:

  • Actual Goals Allowed per game: 1.10
  • Expected Goals Allowed per game: 1.53

The expected goals metrics are even worse when the Eagles are away from Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace ranks second-to-last in the Premier League in expected goals scored per game at 0.93.

Before the break, the Eagles were also having issues defensively on the road. In their last five matches on the road, they allowed 11.07 expected goals, which led to a -5.17 expected goal differential. Regression for Crystal Palace is coming and with seemingly nothing to play for, don’t surprised if they come out sluggish at Vitality Stadium.


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Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace Pick

The current line on DraftKings has this game as a pick’em, with Bournemouth slightly favored at +150. Bournemouth should be a bigger favorite in this game based on my model:

  • Bournemouth projected odds: +102 (49.57% win probability)
  • Crystal Palace projected odds: +329 (23.39% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +268 (27.14% win probability)
  • Bournemouth projected xG: 1.40
  • Crystal Palace projected xG: 0.95

Based on those numbers, I think there is good value on Bournemouth to get at least a draw from this match.

PICK: Bournemouth Draw No Bet (-129)
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