Premier League Tuesday: Will Manchester City Slip Up for the First Time?

Premier League Tuesday: Will Manchester City Slip Up for the First Time? article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero celebrating a goal with teammates

  • It's a very quick turnaround for Premier League Week 15 as matches are set for Tuesday and Wednesday, highlighted by Manchester United-Arsenal (Wednesday 3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports) at Old Trafford.
  • In this piece we'll focus on the betting market for Tuesday's four games: Bournemouth-Huddersfield (2:45 p.m. ET), Brighton-Crystal Palace (2:45 p.m. ET), West Ham-Cardiff (2:45 p.m. ET) and Manchester City-Watford (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports).

Premier League fans only had to get through Monday before a slew of midweek action awaits, and we’ll be previewing all 10 matches for Tuesday and Wednesday.

.2018-19 Season Trends

  • There was just one draw in Week 14 (Southampton vs. Manchester United) while home teams dominated the results, winning seven of ten matches.
  • Favorites have won 84 of 140 games this season, good for an overall profit of +5.95 units.
  • Huddersfield’s win over Wolves as +650 underdogs in Week 13 remains the only big upset of the season. Teams closing +500 or higher have won just one of 69 matches at those odds.
  • Watford (+6.95 units), Tottenham (+6.13 u) and Brighton (+5.85 u) have been the most profitable clubs on the moneyline. Watford and Tottenham both lost in Week 14, but Brighton came back to beat Huddersfield, 2-1, as +288 underdogs.

 

It’s been a slow start for value plays but there’s still a long way to go in the season and plenty of opportunities awaiting.  For Tuesday I’ve looked at the betting market and picked out two plays to make (15-31-1 season record, -4.21 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Bournemouth vs. Huddersfield (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

The only notable moneyline movement has been on the draw (+280), while over/under bettors are keen on the under (2.5). Sportsbooks have shifted the juice on the under from -105 to -117 and may keep going until kickoff.

Public bettors are taking a chance on Huddersfield (+450) and they do seem appealing at that price. After struggling early in the season, they got back on track with seven points in three matches before a red card derailed their hopes over the weekend, losing at home to Brighton, 2-1.

At the current odds I’d only consider taking the draw or Huddersfield, but it’s better to wait until Bournemouth bets start coming in to potentially increase the line.

 

West Ham vs. Cardiff (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

Both clubs were victorious last match and impressive in their wins, but the market is siding with West Ham (-145) to grab all three home points in this encounter.

The Hammers might have finally found themselves this season under Manuel Pellegrini and definitely have the edge in talent. Early bettors grabbed -140/-145 and I’d expect to see them continue to pile on.

This match feels a lot like Crystal PalaceBurnley from the weekend where an unusually high-priced Crystal Palace (-180) dominated in a 2-0 home win. I’d feel comfortable betting West Ham at -150 or lower, although I’m not sure how long those odds will last.

Brighton vs. Crystal Palace (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

Home side Brighton opened +175 and increased to +185, while Crystal Palace did the opposite, moving from +185 to +175. Attracting nearly half of the early bets, it appears that both the public and sharps are on Crystal Palace to win.

Brighton have managed to find the net in seven straight league matches but they don’t score from open-play often (5 of 16 goals this season) and probably over-performed thus far.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have certainly under-performed and Wilfried Zaha hasn’t scored a league goal since September 15th. If they can come close to replicating Saturday’s all-around effort, they should be able to take all three points at Brighton.

Watford vs. Manchester City (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports)

Manchester City (-325) have not lost a game yet in the EPL this season, but a large chunk of public bettors think Watford (+875) will be the first to beat them.

This is particularly surprising since Watford have been shutout in three of their last four matches, and drew 1-1 with Southampton in the only game that they scored in. They aren’t exactly exuding confidence to bet on, and there’s hardly any reason to fade Manchester City.

Perhaps it’s simply the intriguing price and home-field advantage, but these clubs would both have to do 180’s for an upset to occur. Man City on the moneyline or goal-line would be my only considerations here.


Value Plays

  • West Ham (-150) vs. Cardiff
  • Crystal Palace (+180) at Brighton
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