Premier League Tuesday: Will Manchester City Slip Up for the First Time?

Dec 04, 2018 6:40 AM EST
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Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero celebrating a goal with teammates

  • It's a very quick turnaround for Premier League Week 15 as matches are set for Tuesday and Wednesday, highlighted by Manchester United-Arsenal (Wednesday 3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports) at Old Trafford.
  • In this piece we'll focus on the betting market for Tuesday's four games: Bournemouth-Huddersfield (2:45 p.m. ET), Brighton-Crystal Palace (2:45 p.m. ET), West Ham-Cardiff (2:45 p.m. ET) and Manchester City-Watford (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports).

Premier League fans only had to get through Monday before a slew of midweek action awaits, and we’ll be previewing all 10 matches for Tuesday and Wednesday.

.2018-19 Season Trends

  • There was just one draw in Week 14 (Southampton vs. Manchester United) while home teams dominated the results, winning seven of ten matches.
  • Favorites have won 84 of 140 games this season, good for an overall profit of +5.95 units.
  • Huddersfield’s win over Wolves as +650 underdogs in Week 13 remains the only big upset of the season. Teams closing +500 or higher have won just one of 69 matches at those odds.
  • Watford (+6.95 units), Tottenham (+6.13 u) and Brighton (+5.85 u) have been the most profitable clubs on the moneyline. Watford and Tottenham both lost in Week 14, but Brighton came back to beat Huddersfield, 2-1, as +288 underdogs.

 

It’s been a slow start for value plays but there’s still a long way to go in the season and plenty of opportunities awaiting.  For Tuesday I’ve looked at the betting market and picked out two plays to make (15-31-1 season record, -4.21 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Bournemouth vs. Huddersfield (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

The only notable moneyline movement has been on the draw (+280), while over/under bettors are keen on the under (2.5). Sportsbooks have shifted the juice on the under from -105 to -117 and may keep going until kickoff.

Public bettors are taking a chance on Huddersfield (+450) and they do seem appealing at that price. After struggling early in the season, they got back on track with seven points in three matches before a red card derailed their hopes over the weekend, losing at home to Brighton, 2-1.

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