Premier League Week 14 Betting Preview: Big Upsets Looming?

Nov 30, 2018 06:18 PM EST

Shaun Botterill – Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham’s Harry Kane taking a shot against Arsenal

  • Premier League Week 14 action is highlighted by Sunday's three derbies, all on NBC Sports: Liverpool-Everton (11:15 a.m. ET), Arsenal-Tottenham (9:05 a.m. ET) and Chelsea-Fulham (7 a.m. ET).
  • Liverpool (-250) and Chelsea (-530) are heavy favorites to win, but Arsenal (+155) and Tottenham (+165) have nearly identical odds in their matchup.
  • There's potential for a couple sneaky underdogs to pull off an upset and I've picked out three value plays on the entire slate.

We’ve officially entered the sweet spot in the Premier League season with 80 matches from now until January 3, 2019.

It’s a hectic schedule with other tournaments mixed in like the Champions League, and bettors will have to be particularly aware of lineup changes and injuries.

Let’s take a quick look at some season trends before breaking down this weekend’s action.

2018-19 Season Trends

  • Huddersfield’s 2-0 win over Wolves as +650 underdogs last weekend was the first upset by a team listed above +500 in 63 matches this season.
  • Favorites have gone 79-51 for +8.21 units.
  • Watford (+7.95 units) and Tottenham (+7.13) have been the most profitable clubs on the moneyline through 13 weeks.

Favorites have ruled thus far but Week 14 could be shaping up for some upsets. I’ve looked at the betting market for every match and picked out three value plays (14-29-1 season record, -3.12 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Saturday (6 matches)

For the second straight week there’s no early kickoff on Saturday morning, but this will be the last time that happens for a while.

In the 10 a.m. ET time slot, three crucial matchups involve teams in the lower half of the table: Crystal Palace-Burnley, Huddersfield-Brighton and Newcastle-West Ham.

Every club should be a little more nervous about their status following Cardiff’s 2-1 comeback win over Wolves Friday night.

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