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Premier League Week 11 Betting Preview: Where’s the Value Between Arsenal and Liverpool?

Nov 02, 2018 2:42 PM EDT
Credit: Pictured: Liverpool celebrating a goal against Arsenal last season.

  • Premier League Week 11 is highlighted by a marquee matchup Saturday afternoon between Arsenal and Liverpool (1 p.m. ET on NBC).
  • The three most profitable clubs on the season (Brighton, Watford and Bournemouth) are all plus-money underdogs this weekend.
  • After analyzing the betting market for all ten EPL matches, I've picked out three value plays to make including Arsenal-Liverpool.

It’s another big weekend in the Premier League, highlighted by Arsenal and Liverpool squaring off on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

There are also critical games toward the bottom of the table between Huddersfield-Fulham and Burnley-West Ham.

2018-19 Season Trends

Draws were finally profitable in Week 10, but sportsbooks have been thrilled with the overall results so far this season: home teams, road teams and draws are all in the red.

Watford (+10.95 units), Bournemouth (+6.60 u) and Brighton (+5.97 u) have been the most profitable clubs to bet this year.

Newcastle and Huddersfield have been the least profitable, costing bettors a combined 20 units on the moneyline, and neither club has a victory in the Premier League yet.

There still hasn’t been a big upset as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 47 matches.

Will we finally see a surprise in EPL Week 11? After breaking down the betting market I’ve picked out three value plays (10-22-1 season record, -3.83 units).

Brighton at Everton (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Brighton Odds: +595
  • Everton Odds: -170
  • Draw Odds: +305
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (o-110)

Despite being one of the most profitable clubs this season, Brighton find themselves as hefty +595 underdogs to beat Everton on Saturday. Those odds are way too enticing to pass up, in my opinion.


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