Premier League Week 11 Betting Preview: Where’s the Value Between Arsenal and Liverpool?

Premier League Week 11 Betting Preview: Where’s the Value Between Arsenal and Liverpool? article feature image
Credit: Pictured: Liverpool celebrating a goal against Arsenal last season.

  • Premier League Week 11 is highlighted by a marquee matchup Saturday afternoon between Arsenal and Liverpool (1 p.m. ET on NBC).
  • The three most profitable clubs on the season (Brighton, Watford and Bournemouth) are all plus-money underdogs this weekend.
  • After analyzing the betting market for all ten EPL matches, I've picked out three value plays to make including Arsenal-Liverpool.

It’s another big weekend in the Premier League, highlighted by Arsenal and Liverpool squaring off on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

There are also critical games toward the bottom of the table between Huddersfield-Fulham and Burnley-West Ham.

2018-19 Season Trends

Draws were finally profitable in Week 10, but sportsbooks have been thrilled with the overall results so far this season: home teams, road teams and draws are all in the red.

Watford (+10.95 units), Bournemouth (+6.60 u) and Brighton (+5.97 u) have been the most profitable clubs to bet this year.

Newcastle and Huddersfield have been the least profitable, costing bettors a combined 20 units on the moneyline, and neither club has a victory in the Premier League yet.

There still hasn’t been a big upset as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 47 matches.

Will we finally see a surprise in EPL Week 11? After breaking down the betting market I’ve picked out three value plays (10-22-1 season record, -3.83 units).

Brighton at Everton (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Brighton Odds: +595
  • Everton Odds: -170
  • Draw Odds: +305
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (o-110)

Despite being one of the most profitable clubs this season, Brighton find themselves as hefty +595 underdogs to beat Everton on Saturday. Those odds are way too enticing to pass up, in my opinion.

This should be a tight matchup as Brighton have won three straight matches by a 1-0 scoreline and haven’t conceded in 295 minutes.

Everton are no slouches but they’re coming off a loss at Manchester United, 2-1, last Sunday. Their price of -170 this weekend is far too high and they’re not the type of team that can be trusted at those odds.

Public bettors are riding Everton anyways, but I’ll be going the contrarian route and hoping for the biggest outright upset of the season.

The Bet: Brighton +595

Leicester City at Cardiff (Saturday, 11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Leicester Odds: +115
  • Cardiff Odds: +275
  • Draw Odds: +235
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-145)

Leicester City will play this match with heavy hearts after owner and chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha passed away in a tragic helicopter crash. He was instrumental in their improbable title-winning run in 2015-16, defying the 5000-1 odds placed on the Foxes before the season. More importantly, he was a great man and person who clearly had a positive effect on everyone he encountered.

Leicester’s mid-week match in the Carabao Cup was postponed, so Saturday’s match against Cardiff will be their first played since the disaster.

It doesn’t really feel right to bet on this match, but the reality is that things must go on.

With a low total of 2 goals and similar three-way moneylines, the historical data says that the draw is the right play. 

This betting system has netted +64 units with a 13% ROI since we started tracking EPL data, and I’ll be sticking with it for Cardiff-Leicester City.

The Bet: Draw +235

Liverpool at Arsenal (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

  • Liverpool Odds: -105
  • Arsenal Odds: +290
  • Draw Odds: +275
  • Over/Under: 3 (o-112)

The marquee match of the weekend takes place at The Emirates in North London with Arsenal taking on undefeated Liverpool.

The Gunners had their 11-match winning streak snapped with a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace last weekend, but the undefeated run continues. Meanwhile, Liverpool are unbeaten in league play this season, and haven’t lost to Arsenal in more than three years.

Public bettors have jumped all over Liverpool (60% of tickets) to get the victory and their odds have shifted from +110 to -105. Arsenal are also attracting a lot of attention for an underdog with nearly 30% of the bets, but the line has moved away from the Gunners.

The draw is being avoided at all costs and a great contrarian option, especially considering both teams would be happy with a point apiece. At the price of +275, I’ll gladly hope for a 1-1 or 2-2 finish.

The Bet: Draw +275

Most Lopsided Betting %

  • Watford are the most lopsided public wager for the second consecutive week. The Hornets thrashed Huddersfield 3-0 for the masses last weekend, and they face lowly Newcastle on Saturday.
  • The public is also heavy on Manchester United and Tottenham as small road underdogs, usually good spots to fade.

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Biggest Line Moves

  • Liverpool’s odds have shifted the most since opening, moving from +110 to -105. That equates to about a 3.5% change in implied win probability.

Value Plays

  • Brighton +595
  • Cardiff-Leicester Draw (+235)
  • Arsenal-Liverpool Draw (+275)
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