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Premier League Week 12 Preview: What’s the Best Bet for the Manchester Derby?

Nov 09, 2018 1:52 PM EST
Credit:

ManUtd.com. Pictured: Manchester United’s Paul Pogba

  • The highly anticipated Manchester Derby will take place on Sunday, November 11 at The Etihad between Manchester City and Manchester United (11:30 a.m. ET on NBC).
  • There are nine other matches in the EPL this weekend and I've picked out three total value plays to make after analyzing the betting market, including the Manchester Derby.

The Premier League Week 12 betting market has been very active all week and there’s value all over the board for Saturday and Sunday.

First let’s take a quick look at how this season has unfolded from a betting perspective.

2018-19 Season Trends

There was only one draw in Week 11 but we were fortunate enough to be on it.

Watford dropped a 1-0 match at Newcastle last weekend but they’re still the most profitable team on the moneyline this year at +9.95 units. Bournemouth (+5.60), Brighton (+4.97) and Tottenham (+4.28) are next on the list.

Huddersfield and Newcastle both picked up their first victories of the season in Week 11, leaving Fulham at the very bottom of the league table based on goal differential.

There still hasn’t been a big upset as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 52 matches. Favorites have won 69 matches for +9.55 units.

What will be in store for Week 12? I’ve broken down the betting market for every match and picked out three value plays (11-24-1 season record, -3.05 units).


Saturday (6 matches)

Premier League action starts bright and early in the U.S. on Saturday with Cardiff taking on Brighton at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBCSports. Brighton had reeled off three straight 1-0 wins before a 3-1 loss at Everton last weekend, and they’re +217 underdogs on the road at Cardiff.

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Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
@ArsenalDMC

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