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Premier League Week 17 Preview: Bettors Backing Manchester United to Upset Liverpool

Dec 16, 2018 1:13 AM EST
Credit:

Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool’s Mo Salah taking a shot vs. Manchester United

  • Premier League Week 17 action is headlined by Liverpool vs. Manchester United (Sunday 11:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports) with the Reds at the top of the league standings.
  • Public bettors are rolling the dice on Manchester United (+550) as big road underdogs, and have been eyeing other dogs as well.
  • We've broken down the betting market for this weekend's matches and picked out four value plays to make.

It was already going to be a big weekend in the Premier League with Liverpool battling Manchester United, but it’s been amped up after the Reds overtook Manchester City at the top of the league table.

Man City dropped down to second place following their first loss of the season, 2-0, at Chelsea. City are now one point behind Liverpool, but they remain heavy -250 favorites to win the league title with 22 games left.

2018-19 Season Trends

  • Home teams won 6 of 10 matches in Week 16 for +4.88 units, including wins by Chelsea (+260 vs. Man City) and Cardiff City (+229 vs. Southampton).
  • Underdogs of +500 or higher have won just 2 of 77 matches for -63.32 units.
  • Favorites have fallen off a bit lately but have still gone 89-61 for +3.43 units.
  • Tottenham are now the most profitable club on the moneyline, winning 12 of 16 matches for +7.46 units.

For Week 17 I’ve analyzed the betting market for every match and provided four value plays (18-36-1 season record, -6.62 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)


Saturday (7 Matches)

The early match to kickoff the weekend will be Manchester City hosting Everton at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports. City are coming off their first loss in the EPL this season but are huge -430 favorites to get back to winning ways against The Toffees.

The intriguing betting action in this one has been on the total, with the majority of tickets and nearly 80% of the money on the under (3.5). Usually casual bettors are on the over, especially when it involves a team like Man City, but this time they’re on the same side as the sharps.