RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Odds & Prediction | Champions League Betting Pick (Wednesday, Mar. 6)
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Jude Bellingham.
RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | +475 |
| Real Madrid Odds | -188 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
A shorthanded version of Real Madrid took a 1-0 aggregate lead in the first leg of their Champions League knockout tie against RB Leipzig three weeks ago, and now the Spanish side will look to cement its place in the quarterfinal by holding off a Leipzig comeback in Madrid on Wednesday.
Brahim Diaz scored a 48th minute goal with his left foot from 16 yards out and Madrid rode the hot shot-stopping of goalkeeper Andriy Lunin en route to the clean sheet. Leipzig managed 1.4 expected goals, 14 shots and nine on target, but they were unable to break through at home.
Given Real Madrid's inconsistent defense this season, Leipzig will have chances to play its way back into the tie. The question is whether or not Leipzig can hold out Madrid, one of the best transition attacking teams in the world, as they push higher and higher up the pitch to search for the win and equalizer in the aggregate tie.
Read on for my RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid prediction.
Real Madrid
Jude Bellingham has been Real Madrid's best player this season and he will feature in the second leg of this tie after he missed the first leg in Germany through injury. Bellingham was sent off at the end of Madrid's controversial 2-2 draw in La Liga with Valencia over the weekend, but he is eligible to play in this European match and will start to provide a key attacking boost to their lineup. He's expected to form an attacking front three with Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo.
Real Madrid managed 26 penalty area touches in the first leg without Bellingham and tallied 15 total shots with 1.5 xG. The entire attack ran through Vinicius in ball progression as he managed five carries into the penalty area, created five shots and also took four himself. The addition of Bellingham to the side to make those additional runs into the center of the penalty area is the key to breaking open a Leipzig defense that hasn't held up nearly as well in Europe this season.
The biggest key for Real Madrid defensively was the elite center back play of makeshift center back Aurelien Tchouameni. He's naturally a central midfielder, but the injury crisis at Real Madrid has led to him playing extra minutes in the backline. He partnered alongside Nacho in the first leg and had seven tackles won + interceptions, most of any Madrid player in the first leg. Now that Antonio Rudiger is back fit, Rudiger will partner with Tchouameni.
Despite the center back injuries, Real Madrid's defense has actually taken a step forward in the last two months. Before 2024 began, Real Madrid conceded 1.12 non-penalty xG per match in Spain. Since then, their defensive numbers have taken a step forward and they've allowed 0.81 NPxG per 90.
RB Leipzig
Leipzig did manage a 1-1 draw last season at home against Manchester City in the first leg of their round of 16 matchup, but City's high press completely overwhelmed Leipzig in the second leg back in Manchester. City won that match 7-0 and Leipzig were thoroughly outclassed. Real Madrid are a very different matchup because the Spanish side doesn't play with the same suffocating pressure to force high turnovers, but the German side has also not been nearly as good in Europe this year as it was last season.
Leipzig's underlying numbers have taken a step back in terms of field tilt in the Champions League. They've only controlled the field tilt in one of their six group stage matches and they became even more reliant on quick strike transition attacks when playing Bayern and other elite European sides.
Marco Rose's side did force more high turnovers in the first leg (7-5), but they failed to create more than one shot from those key moments. They were unfortunate to not get at least one goal in that matchup overall, but the game state puts them in a difficult situation for the second leg.
They've been at their best this season when able to find space in behind defenses and exploit them using Xavi Simons passing range and Lois Openda's pace and power to run the channels. That's a major reason why Benjamin Sesko — a more traditional center forward who wins aerial duels and gets shots from settled possession — was the more successful forward in the first leg.
Real Madrid play with a passive defensive line though and they're pretty difficult to exploit in transition given the current set up overall. As a result, both attacks might be a bit overvalued in this matchup.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Prediction
Real Madrid's defense is not at full strength still, but Tchouameni's emergence as a quality center back is a major win for the defense. Combine that with the ball winning range of defensive midfielder Edouard Camavinga and you start to see why Madrid's defense is actually playing better in the last two months despite the other injuries.
Madrid aren't going to press high and overwhelm Leipzig like City did last year, but it's also true that Real Madrid rarely looked troubled in the final 30 minutes once defending a 1-0 lead out of possession. The Bundesliga's contenders have all taken a real step back this season in overall quality — mainly Dortmund, Leipzig and the Europa League teams — and Leipzig may find themselves with a lot of stale possession that leads to few shots in this matchup. The first leg had 29 shots and 2.8 xG, and I only project the second leg for 2.81 goals.
Pick: Under 3 (-107)
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