Bundesliga Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Dortmund (Saturday, Jan. 9)
Harry Langer/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: RB Leipzig star Tyler Adams.
- German powerhouses RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund go at it Saturday in a crucial Bundesliga showdown.
- Can the visiting Black and Yellows scratch out a result at Red Bull Arena?
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match and gives his top play below.
RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||+135 [BET NOW]|
|Dortmund Odds||+195 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+250 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-152/+123) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Two of the Bundesliga’s three best teams will meet Saturday when RB Leipzig hosts Borussia Dortmund at Red Bull Arena.
These sides are trending in recent direction recently, based on performances and results. The host side has come closest to challenging league-leader Bayern Munich for top of the table.
On the other side, Dortmund has not been as fortunate and sacked manager Lucien Favre after a mid-December blowout, 5-1 loss to Stuttgart.
Let’s take a look at these teams and what might be in the cards.
I thought the loss of Timo Werner and Patrick Schick would more negatively impact the RB Leipzig attack than it has so far. The club still ranks third in expected goals for in the league, sitting behind Dortmund and Bayern Munich. Statistically, it features the Bundesliga’s best defense that allows 0.83 xGA per 90 minutes.
However, RB Leipzig have had issues creating chances when its played against the better defensive teams in the league so far. The club has not played three of the five best defenses in the Bundesliga yet (Union Berlin, Wolfsburg and Dortmund), which is currently inflating its xGF numbers.
RB Leipzig also lacks a player in the league’s top 17 for xG per 90 minutes. Manager Julian Nagelsmann is one of the best in the world, and he’s taken this striker-and-attack-by-committee approach really well to this point.
Yet, when the outfit played Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen, two of the better defenses to date, it was held to 1.3 xG combined in two tilts.
So, while RB Leipzig has excellent underlying numbers and an attack by committee approach that has worked in beating the league’s worst teams, I am skeptical of its ability to generate chances against top German defenses.
Borussia Dortmund has been one of the most fascinating teams to analyze over the course of the last few seasons.
Propelled by the absurd finishing of Jadon Sancho and then Erling Haaland, few teams in Europe were bigger xG over-performers than Dortmund last season.
Despite some good, yet not great xG numbers, many saw the Black and Yellows as one of the top teams in Europe when they were really barely third best in Germany. Favre’s teams have been notorious for over-performing when it comes to xG everywhere he’s gone, so it wasn’t that surprising.
However, as for every team and player in the world, regression eventually hit in the early part of the current campaign. Sancho and Haaland have actually somewhat underperformed, plus and Dortmund has as well.
Despite an improved xG difference per 90 minutes — Dortmund ranks No. 1 in non-penalty xG difference — Favre’s side was underperforming in results. It got him fired, perhaps even undeservingly so in my opinion.
Haaland is one of the best strikers in the world, averaging 0.94 NPxG per 90 in the Bundesliga. That number is is 0.25 per 90 better than Bayern Munich star Robert Lewandowski, who sits in second place in the category.
Sancho, along with Marco Reus and Gio Reyna, have excelled as an attacking group. They are the best contingent in the league when it comes to expected goals so far this season.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Dortmund’s performances in recent weeks have not been nearly as good as they were early in the season, but the return of Haaland gives the club way too much attacking firepower that RB Leipzig won’t be able to match.
The Black and Yellows have had no issues away from home either, as they’re currently a half-expected goal per 90 better on the road than any other team.
I project Dortmund as a slight underdog in this spot, handicapping the club right around plus-105 on the Draw No Bet line. The current number offered at DraftKings is +107, so our numbers are pretty much equal.
That said, I like Dortmund via a Draw No Bet wager and hope to get this play in at even higher number if possible.
Pick: Dortmund — Pick’em (+107 or better)