Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Roma vs. Cagliari & Atalanta vs. Inter Milan

Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Roma vs. Cagliari & Atalanta vs. Inter Milan article feature image
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Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Inter Milan teammates Edin Džeko, left, and Lautaro Martínez.

Who ever said Serie A was a hyper-defensive league?

This past Sunday’s card continued to build upon the offensive bursts bettors saw on earlier in the week via another busy slate, featuring a combined 39 goals across 10 fixtures. We also managed to produce zero losers when it comes to our best bets, hitting on the total going over the numbers in AC Milan Milan vs. Venezia match, as well as Juventus following its big comeback.

The other betting angle wound up being a push when it came to the game total in the contest pitting Inter Milan against Lazio.

Now, we’re turning our attention to this weekend’s slate, which is headlined by the showdown between Inter and Atalanta. So, without further ado, here are the three bets I’m targeting in the Italian top flight.

Serie A Best Bets

Juventus vs. Udinese

Juventus Odds -270
Udinese Odds +750
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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The full-game prices for this fixture are a little too rich for my blood, but I was able to find an angle for the first half.

Across Juventus’ last seven fixtures, the club has done no worse than a draw in six of them. However, in its last seven against teams in the bottom half of the table, The Old Lady has won five consecutive opening frames.

The numbers are even better at home, where Juventus has led at 45 minutes for three in a row against bottom-half sides. All told, manager Massimiliano Allegri’s side has won seven of 10 first halves against teams occupying the bottom half of the table.

Plus, Juventus has historically dominated a Udinese side that has simultaneously struggled against the top seven this season. The visitors are winless in eight matches against the top seven this season (four losses; four draws) and are winless in three consecutive games (two defeats; one tie) against Juventus.

Moreover, Udinese’s first-half record against the top seven is an unimpressive 2-4-2 (W-L-D), including a first-half loss to Juventus in the reverse meeting. Plus, I Bianconeri are due for some negative offensive regression as of late (12 goals on six xG in their last five games), while Juventus has played incredibly well defensively in its last three first halves (-0.72 combined xGA) against bottom-half sides Cagliari, Bologna and Venezia.

Finally, the fact remains Juventus is due for some positive offensive regression at Allianz Stadium. Through 10 home fixtures, the club has 12 goals on 13.5 xG, per fbref.com. Lastly, if you trust the odds, the final trend going in your favor is that in Juventus’ five home wins, it has won the first half in four of them.

For those reasons, back The Old Lady here at a discount price to protect against another late Udinese comeback.

Pick: Juventus — 1H ML (-115)

Roma vs. Cagliari

Roma Odds -265
Cagliari Odds +700
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
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Bettors will be able to draw a number of parallels between this fixture and Juventus vs. Udinese, which is why I’m again targeting the first-half angle.

We’ll begin with the visitors, who have been one of the worst opening-half road teams this season. Cagliari has lost three first halves in a row and seven of 10 overall. Additionally, the relegation candidate has never done better than a tie in the opening 45 minutes when playing away from home this season.

Even if you consider its home first-half record, the results don’t improve that much. Cagliari has won only three first halves, which came against Sampdoria, Venezia and Genoa. Furthermore, in 10 matches against teams occupying the top half of the table, Cagliari is winless in all 10 opening halves (eight losses; two draws) this season.

On the flip side, you have Roma, which is unbeaten in four home first halves against bottom-half opposition (three wins; one draw) and has dominated its last few opening frames. In its last three home matches, Roma has combined to win all three first halves by a 3.3-0.5 xG margin.

Finally, although it has played two consecutive first halves against Cagliari to draws, Roma has won the first 45 minutes in two of its last three home fixtures against its current foe.

So, once again, steer clear of the full-match prices and take the better side at a discounted option.

Pick: Roma — 1H ML (-120)

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Atalanta vs. Inter Milan

Atalanta Odds +205
Inter Odds +130
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +140)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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The reverse meeting between these sides produced fireworks, but the underlying metrics suggest more goals should have been scored.

Both outfits earned a point in a 2-2 draw at the San Siro, but Inter and Atalanta combined for six total xG in that fixture. Inter was the particularly unlucky side in that match, generating the lion’s share of that xG total and scoring two goals on four xG, per fbref.com.

Additionally, the Serie A leader accounted for seven of the eight total big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

So, while I lean toward the total going over the number again, I’m choosing to focus on Inter’s team total for two reasons.

First, Inter has demonstrated more consistency historically against Atalanta, highlighted by six goals on 6.4 xG in the last four meetings. And second, I want to protect against Inter’s defense continuing its good run of form. The club has allowed less than 1.0 xGA in six of its last seven games, including clean sheets in six of its last seven matches.

Plus, Atalanta has only kept a single clean sheet (undeservedly so) in six matches against the top seven and conceded at least two in the remaining five games. Moreover, in five contests against the top five xG-per-90-minute sides, Atalanta has conceded 13 times on 11 xG and has hasn’t kept any of those sides under two total goals.

Then there’s Inter’s offense, which has played unbelievably well across its current eight-match winning streak. In those eight fixtures, manager Simone Inzaghi’s squad has generated 22 goals on 18.5 xG and only been held below two goals once against Torino, which boasts the third-best Serie A defense.

Given the concerning metrics associated with Atalanta’s defense — sixth in xGA/90 minutes; seventh in goal-creating actions against/90 minutes – I believe Inter will have little issue cutting through a defense that has only kept five clean sheets.

Pick: Inter Milan — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-125)

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