Spain vs Sweden Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Preview

Spain vs Sweden Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Preview article feature image

Eurasia Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Musovic.

Spain vs Sweden Odds

Tuesday, Aug. 15
4 a.m. ET
Spain Odds+105
Sweden Odds+260
Over / Under
 +140 / -188
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Spain and Sweden meet in the World Cup semifinals both with their eyes on a spot in the final.

The former needed extra time to get by the Netherlands after conceding a goal in stoppage time, but Spain got the winner in extra time to get here. It's been an up and down tournament for them, as they have looked dominant for a majority of their matches, but have had moments where teams have taken advantage of transition opportunities. Sweden will be the best team they've seen so far in this World Cup so we'll see if they are up for the task.

Sweden knocked out Japan with a very impressive performance winning 2-1. The Swedes have shown their prowess, dominating a relatively weak group and then taking out the tournament favorite United States in the round of 16. For the third straight round they will be playing the role of underdog and they have shown to be very capable in that role.


Sweden were incredibly impressive going up against the most impressive team at this World Cup to date, Japan. They utterly dominated the match. Spain took the first 13 shots, controlled the possession, consistently were threatening the Japanese penalty area and used their athleticism to win a lot of aerial duals on set pieces.

They now have shown throughout the group stage and against Japan that they are a team that can control possession, build up and create chances at an elite level but also sit and defend in a low block. That is huge for this match because they are not going to be the ones controlling most of the possession.

Sweden have shown their ability to be incredibly dangerous in those transitional opportunities and on set pieces, which are two areas where Spain are weakest.


Spain have been so dominant throughout this tournament outside of the match against Japan, when they still barely lost the xG battle. They lead the Women's World Cup with a +14.1 xG differential in five matches. However, they haven't played a team to the level of Sweden yet. In the round of 16 they played Switzerland, who are a slow possession build up style and also a team that needs to have the ball to be successful. Then they played the Netherlands, another build up style team that was without their best two attacking players.

We talk about this time and time again for Spain. When they are out of possession they don’t really know what to do and it can cost them a match, as it almost did against the Netherlands.

The Dutch had no business sending that match to extra time. Up until the 84th minute, shots were in favor of Spain 17-to-1 and they ended up controlling 61% of the possession. They didn't take advantage of their opportunities and it almost killed them. Against a better team like Sweden they would be going home if it happens again.

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Spain vs Sweden

Pick & Prediction

These two played in a friendly in October of 2022 and it was a chaotic match. It ended in a 1-1 draw where Sweden scored early and then tried to just sit back and counter. Spain ended up winning the xG battle 2.3 to 1.7 with a total of 34 shots between the two sides.

I don’t think we are going to see anything like that here in this match, but if Sweden do score early I think we have some good chaos potential.

Sweden are only the second dangerous transitional team that Spain have faced in this World Cup and the first one, Japan, ripped them apart. So, I like the value on Sweden +0.5 at -127 via BetRivers to at least get this match to extra time.

Pick: Sweden +0.5 (-127) 

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