Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chelsea vs. Burnley (Sunday, Jan. 31)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chelsea vs. Burnley (Sunday, Jan. 31) article feature image
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Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Christian Pulisic.

  • Burnley brings its two-match unbeaten run to Stamford Bridge for Sunday's Premier League game against Chelsea.
  • Can the Clarets hang with the powerful Blues? Jeremy Pond thinks so and explains why below.

Chelsea vs. Burnley Odds

Chelsea Odds -305
Burnley Odds +850
Draw +410
Over/Under 2.5 (-141/+114) 
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Things could get interesting bright and early Sunday at Stamford Bridge when Chelsea hosts surging Burnley in a Premier League showdown.

The Blues, who enter this match fresh off a scoreless draw against Wolves last time out, sit in eighth place on 30 points. A victory here could push Chelsea as high as sixth in England’s top flight.

They will face the revitalized Clarets, who have notched two consecutive victories and moved clear of the relegation zone in the process. Burnley rallied for a 3-2 victory over Aston Villa at Turf Moor during the midweek fixtures.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be in store for this game.

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Chelsea

Life with manager Thomas Tuchel at the helm commenced in the most vanilla way possible. Neither side really put together any quality chances at Stamford Bridge, with the Blues holding a slight 0.9 xG — 0.4 xG department.

Tuchel is bring his own flavor to the club’s lineup since taking over for Frank Lampard, even sending out Callum Hudson-Odoi as his right wing back in his managerial debut.

Chelsea only trained once under its new gaffer, so we should be able to get more of an idea what kind of lineup and shape Tuchel intends to implement moving forward.

It has been a rough patch as of late for the Blues, though, as they’ve lost four of their last six league outings. The lone win came via a 1-0 shutout victory over regelation-side Fulham on Jan. 16 at Craven Cottage.

As for Chelsea’s advanced metrics, the club has put up some strong numbers thus far. The Blues sit on 31.3 expected goals and 21.2 expected goals against, resulting in a solid +10.1 xGDiff and +0.51 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Burnley

What started as a rough ride in the first half of the campaign has turned into a slice of soccer bliss at Turf Moor.

The Clarets, who seemed destined for a drop-zone battle the entire season, have completely turned things around over their last five matches. The wins against Sheffield United and Aston Villa bookended a shocking 1-0 victory over defending league champion Liverpool at Anfield.

Now, manager Sean Dyche’s side is in 15th place on the table with 22 points and nine points clear of the bottom three in England’s top flight.

When comparing advanced metrics with Chelsea, Burnley is well behind its foe in all similar categories. The Clarets have a dismal 16.5 expected goals and even worse 28.6 expected goals against, resulting in a -12.1 xGDiff and -0.64 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Yes, Burnley’s numbers are brutal. However, they’re not indicative of how well this club has played as of late. The Clarets have been in every recent league game, including 1-0 losses to Manchester United and West Ham United.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

I didn’t show much respect to the Clarets in that match against the Villans, and wound up paying the price when the hosts earned the victory.

That said, I am not making the same mistake twice and will back an in-form Burnley side to keep this one close and potentially scratch out a road draw. Those wins over Liverpool and Aston Villa showed this outfit has no desire to head to the Championship, so I will jump aboard the Clarets’ train in this spot.

I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 2.75 goals as well. There has been one goal or less in Burnley’s last five away league tilts, so I fully expect Dyche’s group to lock things down in the back.

Throw in the fact the total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Chelsea’s last three contests, and you have to be optimistic in this wager.

Picks: Burnley +1.5 (-121) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-109)

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