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Sunday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: How to Bet Osasuna vs. Valladolid & Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest

Sunday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks: How to Bet Osasuna vs. Valladolid & Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Gabriel Jesus.

While Sunday is NFL day in America, not a single play will be run before 1 p.m. ET, meaning you have plenty of time to examine the soccer odds board and get your bets in on a different kind of football.

Below, Nick Hennion, BJ Cunningham and Brett Pund have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 10 a.m. ET or earlier, meaning they will also end right around when the NFL kicks off.

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer on Sunday.

Our 3 Early Sunday Best Bets

Osasuna vs. Valladolid

Osasuna Odds -110
Valladolid Odds +340
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+118 / -142)
Time 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hennion: Osasuna is at home, so that makes them worth a play rather than a fade.

Through six home fixtures this season, Osasuna are 4-2-0 (W-L-D) and have a +3.45 xGOT differential, which is sixth-best in Spain.

As for Valladolid, they have played horribly away from home and are a negative regression candidate entering this match. Through five road efforts, the La Liga-newcomers have a -5 goal differential against a -6.32 xGOT differential and -13 big scoring chances differential.

Even if you remove a road game against Barcelona from that sample, they still have a -1 goal differential against a -3.12 xGOT differential and a -10 big scoring chances differential.

Finally, in their non-Barcelona road matches, Real Valladolid have created only 0.94 xGOT per 90 minutes. Osasuna, on the other hand, are allowing only 0.93 xGOT per 90 at home.

Based on those trends, I’ll get behind Osasuna to continue their strong start at anything better than -125.

Pick: Osasuna ML

Pund: When I look at this match, there is a clear advantage to the home side, especially the Osasuna attack going up against a disappointing Real Valladolid defense.

One of the primary reasons behind this bet is the home and road splits for both clubs. Starting with the hosts, Los Rojillos have generated 9.3 xG at Estadio El Sadar, which ranks in the Top 5 in La Liga.

Osasuna have also averaged 2.333 big scoring chances per home game and scored in all but one of those fixtures.

Meanwhile, Valladolid have really struggled on the road, allowing 2.08 xG and 3.4 big scoring chances per 90 minutes. This is also the same team that has allowed multiple goals in three of five fixtures away from home, which includes bad opponents like Getafe and Girona.

This was my favorite play on the board for this game, but I also don’t hate the home team on the moneyline (-115) or using a Los Rojillos’ victory in a Single Game Parlay.

Pick: Osasuna Over 1.5 (+110)

Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest

Arsenal Odds -490
Nottingham Forest Odds +1400
Draw +550
Over/Under 2.5 (+144 / -178)
Day | Time 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: I think this total is a tad inflated because of how bad Nottingham Forest’s defense has been on paper.

You are starting to see a lot of that positive regression come Nottingham Forest’s way after teams in the beginning of the season were finishing at an insane rate against them.

Arsenal are playing much more conservativlye when they go ahead, which they’ve always kind of done under Arteta, and in the Southampton and Leeds United matches that was extremely evident. From an even game state or when they’re playing with a lead, Arsenal is allowing only 0.98 xG per 90 minutes.

They have also been the second best defense in the Premier League behind Manchester City. With only 0.81 npxG allowed per match, a number one mark in progressive passes + dribbles allowed and just five big scoring chances conceded, this is a solid unit.

I have 2.83 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under 3.

Pick:Under 3 Goals (+115)

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