Spain vs Switzerland Odds, Prediction, Picks | Women’s World Cup Round of 16

Spain vs Switzerland Odds

Saturday, August 5

1 a.m. ET

FS1

Switzerland and Spain meet in the round of 16 searching for a spot in the quarterfinals of the Women's World Cup.

Surprisingly, Switzerland won Group A without and impressive results. They beat the Philippines 2-0 in their opening match and then drew both Norway and New Zealand. The Swiss came into this tournament in a lot of flux given they changed the manager so late in the cycle. However, everything seems to be going well so far and they have a perfect opportunity to get to the quarterfinals.

Spain has been disappointing once they reach the knockout stage of recent events. At the 2022 Euros they lost in the round of 16 to eventual champions England and also lost in the round of 16 at the last World Cup to the United States. They were not impressive in their final group stage match against Japan, losing 4-0, but they may have been just trying to get a better matchup in the round of 16.

Let's dive into my pick for Switzerland vs Spain.

Switzerland Delivering in Spite of Metrics 

Switzerland may have won Group A, but they were not impressive in doing so. They created 3.1 xG and routed Philippines, who were one of the least talented teams in their first match. After that they took eight shots, only created 1 xG against Norway and then played for a draw and did nothing against New Zealand.

The Swiss are a slow, build up progression type of squad. They tend to control a lot of possession, but it usually doesn’t translate into high quality chances, which has manifested itself here at the World Cup. Even at the Euros last summer, they only created 2.8 xG over their three matches against high quality competition.

Out of possession you would think they would be a high pressing team trying to win the ball back to keep possession, but they’re actually quite passive with their PPDA over the past year, sitting at 10.43. They've been even more passive this World Cup. So far their PPDA is 13.0 and they've only forced 27 high turnovers. So, I have a hard time seeing them coming and pressing a great possession team like Spain.

Spain Looking For Elevated Attacking Showing

Spain dominated two weaker sides in Zambia and Costa Rica, but they got ripped apart by Japan. This was a concern for Spain coming into the World Cup because while they’re an incredibly dominant possession team, they are super vulnerable in transition defense. Facing a great offensive transition team like Japan was a bad matchup for them.

They also showed their shortcomings in the final third against Japan as well. They held 76% possession, attempted 948 passes but only managed 10 shots and 0.7 xG. The good news for them in this matchup is Switzerland is not a team that plays well in transition and in fact have struggled in the final third.

Spain do a lot of their attacking in wide areas and create a lot of their chances via crosses. It’s not surprising given how much they control possession and pin opponents into their final third for the majority of matches. Switzerland are going to play passive and not press them, so they will have to be much more efficient in the final third than they were against Japan.

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Switzerland vs Spain Pick

These two teams  were two of the slowest paced build up teams coming into the World Cup. Spain won’t have to worry about getting ripped apart in transition because that’s not the type of team Switzerland is. The Swiss have 38 10+ pass sequences so far, which is the most of any World Cup team.

So, this match is going to be incredibly slow paced, with Switzerland likely to sit deep and clog up the middle of the pitch, forcing Spain to beat them with crosses.

I like the value on the under 2.5 at -120.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-120 via PointsBet)