Tottenham vs Brighton Odds, Picks, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
(Photo by Bryn Lennon/Getty Images). Pictured: João Pedro of Brighton.
Tottenham vs Brighton Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -138 |
| Brighton Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +338 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -110 / -110 |
For the neutral fan, Ange Postecoglou versus Roberto de Zerbi is one of the most enticing fixtures of the entire English Premier League season. Their commitment to attacking and open soccer at all costs creates a fascinating dynamic when the two sides clash. Tottenham host Brighton for the second time in six weeks on Saturday after Brighton beat Spurs 4-2 on the south coast on Dec. 28.
It's reasonable to expect plenty of fireworks and excitement as a part of the high pressing display that both clubs view as the identity under their current managers. With both clubs also getting healthy after a period of injury and international absences, the stage is set for an enthralling match.
Spurs are especially buoyed by the return of their top attacker, Son Heung-min, who missed most of the last month away at the Asian Cup with South Korea. Brighton are welcoming back Kaoru Mitoma from Japan as well, and both defenses are sure to be tested early and often.
Here is my Tottenham vs Brighton prediction.
Tottenham
Spurs are a difficult team to get a true market rating because they have so rarely had their best XI healthy for the last three months. Tottenham will be as close to 100% full strength as possible on Saturday now that Son is fit to start. They'll have the in-form Richarlison up top, and likely Dejan Kulusevski — who has created the most chances for others in the PL — off the right. James Maddison and Yves Bissouma are healthy in midfield, while Pape Matar Sarr and Rodrigo Bentancur's availability means we're unlikely to see Oliver Skipp and the first choice back line is again fit.
The question is just how good is that group of players? The closest we've come to a good run of matches with everyone fit was the opening half of the season prior to Chelsea. Tottenham played 822 minutes of 11-on-11 soccer including the match against Chelsea on Nov. 6. Spurs averaged 1.85 xG per match and conceded 1.04.
Tottenham had a +0.81 xG difference per 90, which is more than good enough to warrant this current moneyline price on Saturday at home against Brighton. Spurs played from behind immediately in the loss at Brighton, but their ability to turn over Brighton 17 times high and produce 19 shots shows that Spurs should have plenty of opportunities to score in this match, regardless of scoreline.
The leaky defense comes down to whether you believe the issues are more structural or personnel related. Tottenham's style makes it near impossible they'll ever be a plus defensive team, but Tottenham are a bottom five defense since December began. Even with Mickey van de Ven's pace and Cristian Romero fit, the toughest solve is how to estimate Spurs defensive abilities.
The underlying profile is textbook heavy pressing. Spurs are first in high pressing intensity but also rank 11th in big scoring chances conceded, 16th in non-penalty xG and the set piece defense has been an issue this season.
Brighton
If it was said preseason that Brighton had a better defense than attack in the PL rankings, you'd probably be pretty shocked. The Seagulls are fifth in non-penalty xG allowed and 10th in NPxG created per match. The defense is still quite open and has its issues, but the bigger problem that has emerged for de Zerbi is the lack of high end attacking production.
Brighton don't have a single player on the roster averaging more than 0.49 npxG + xA per match. It's a lot of solid attackers, but there's no superstar producer for this club. Evan Ferguson has taken a step back, Joao Pedro has been good but had his numbers bumped up by penalties. Simon Adingra remains on international duty and Mitoma is just returning from time away.
Brighton have played a ton of different lineups, prioritized rotation and mixed and matched their way to good but not great underlying metrics. It's hard to pick a Brighton best XI because it's so rare that de Zerbi has played the same group of players.
The biggest alarm bell for Brighton in this match is that Spurs are the most efficient team in the league at turning final third possession into penalty area touches. Brighton's defense is the worst in the PL at denying ball progression here. Basically, Spurs will have plenty of box area touches.
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Tottenham vs Brighton
Prediction
De Zerbi himself won't be on the sideline because of his touchline ban, but Brighton are sure to go for it on Saturday. Both clubs were able to effectively disrupt the possession and build-up tactics of the other and the result was a high flying and back and forth match.
This is an excellent live betting game as a result, with neither defense being solid enough to maintain a lead should they score one early. Tottenham have especially struggled to hold leads all season long. If you're looking to bet pregame, I'd wait to see if the market doesn't continue to take more Spurs money.
If you can get Brighton +0.5 at +120 or better, I'd bet the Seagulls to get a result. Otherwise, wait and look for a potential live over or live bet on the trailing side.
Pick: Brighton +0.5 (+120 or better)
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