Wolves vs Bournemouth Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Preview (Feb. 18)
Robin Jones/AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images. Pictured: Philip Billing, Jaidon Anthony and Dominic Solanke of Bournemouth.
Wolves vs Bournemouth Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+106 / -127)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+110 / -137)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
A relegation six-pointer takes place at the Molineux on Saturday, as Wolves host Bournemouth.
Wolves were at the bottom of the Premier League table at the World Cup break, but they have since made their way up the table and are now sitting in 15th place and five points above the relegation zone.
They come into this match riding a two-match win streak for the first time all season, but making it a third will be a very difficult challenge against an improved Bournemouth side.
Bournemouth have now fallen into the relegation fight after a poor run of form out of the World Cup break. The Cherries have picked up just two points in their last seven matches, but are showing signs of improvement. They played Newcastle very evenly last weekend at home and a lot of the signings they made at the transfer deadline are starting to have real impact.
Read on for my Wolves vs Bournemouth pick.
Wolves Looking For Better Chances
This another match where Wolves are going to take a ton of shots from distance and not create any type of high-quality chance. Over the last 15 matches, Wolves have created just six big scoring chances and have only created over 1 xG just five times in those 15 matches.
Wolves have the fourth-longest average shot distance, the lowest xG per shot and have created the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League.
The last time these two met, Wolves had an xThreat of 2.33, tilted the field on Bournemouth at 75.5%, had 86 final third entries but were only able to turn that into 18 penalty box entries and only 1 xG.
Bournemouth 0 : 0 Wolves
▪ xG: 0.33 – 1.0
▪ xThreat: 1.08 – 2.33
▪ Possession: 34.7% – 65.3%
▪ Field Tilt: 24.5% – 75.5%
▪ Def Line Height: 38.8 – 48.7#msbot_eng #epl pic.twitter.com/ErhszQpgE7
— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) August 31, 2022
Wolves’ have been pretty good defensively this season. They are only conceding 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes and are top 10 in big scoring chances allowed. The one area they have struggled is defending crosses. Wolves are 17th in the Premier League in crosses completed in their penalty area and percentage of aerial duals won.
That is bad news against Bournemouth, who are one of the lowest percentage teams at attacking through the middle of the pitch and are eighth in the Premier League in crosses completed into the penalty area.
Bournemouth On Serious Cold Streak
The Cherries have ran cold out of the World Cup break, scoring just two goals off of 6.2 xG.
New signings Dango Ouattara and Hamed Traore are only going to help turn their attack around, as both were over a 0.40 xG + xA per 90 minute rate heading to Bournemouth.
It also helps that Bournemouth have Neto back in goal rather than Mark Travers. Both keepers have played a little over 10 90s. Neto is a +4 post shot xG +/- while Travers is -6.9.
Defensively, Bournemouth are in the bottom half of the PL, but they’ve done a good job preventing high quality chances, as the Cherries are 12th in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed
Gary O’Neill has his side set up in a low block and counter style. The Cherries are getting the field tilted on them at 34.18% and are playing the fourth-lowest average defensive line. With that being said, their low block has been effective because only 27.1% are opponents turning a final third entry into a box entry, which is the fourth-best mark in the Premier League.
Wolves vs Bournemouth Pick
This is a really good spot to back Bournemouth, who have looked better in recent matches.
If Wolves are going to consistently shoot from distance, while Bournemouth now have a better keeper in net and are elite at keeping you out of their penalty area, I have a hard time seeing why Wolves should be.a -148 favorite.
I only have Wolves projected at +103, so I love the value on Bournemouth + 1 at -132 odds.
Pick: Bournemouth +1 (-132)
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