ATP Santiago Odds, Picks | Expert Previews Lajovic vs. Ugo Carabelli, Djere vs. Sousa (Tuesday, Feb. 28)
Buda Mendes/Getty Images. Pictured: Laslo Djere
ATP Santiago has already produced incredible tennis and Tuesday is set to be
I’ve found betting value on two of Tuesday’s exciting matches, including Dusan Lajovic vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Laslo Djere vs. Joao Sousa.
Read on for my odds and picks for Tuesday’s matches at ATP Santiago.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Santiago Odds, Picks
Dusan Lajovic (-250) vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (+190)
12:05 p.m. ET
In his most recent event, Lajovic fell 4-6, 6-7(0) to Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of Rio. Lajovic only won 54% of his service points and was broken four times. However, he did manage to break Alcaraz’s serve on three occasions and even had a set point in the second set.
Lajovic is now 7-3 during this year’s Golden Swing, which starts in Cordoba. This includes victories over Sebastian Baez, Diego Schwartzman, Laslo Djere and his opponent Tuesday, Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Lajovic is now 357-221 as a professional on the dirt.
Lajovic hits his spots on serve, hit with consistent depth and has showcased incredible variety. The Serb spreads the court well, hits accurately into tight windows and has a high tennis IQ. His one-handed backhand is also holding up very well.
Ugo Carabelli did well to qualify for Santiago, defeating Thiago Seyboth Wild 1-6, 6-1, 6-1. Despite winning just 41% of his second serves, Ugo Carabelli won 79% of his first serves and was only broken twice. Ugo Carrabelli also won 51% of his return points, breaking on five occasions.
During the 2023 Golden Swing, Ugo Carabelli has a 6-3 record, but the quality of his wins is much lower than Lajovic’s. In his career, the Argentine has a 232-128 record on clay. Ugo Carabelli is incredibly fit, gets consistent depth on his groundstrokes, and places his heavy forehand very well. Unfortunately, Ugo Carabelli lacks power, which is troubling when opponents can match his rally tolerance.
Recently in Buenos Aires, despite the Argentine home-court advantage, Lajovic smoked Ugo Carabelli 6-3, 6-1. The matchup clearly demonstrated how Lajovic is, overall, just a better, more dynamic player.
Lajovic can match Ugo Carabelli’s rally tolerance and depth from the baseline, but has the variety and pace on his forehand to more effectively take control of points. And Ugo Carabelli doesn’t have much of a fitness advantage over Lajovic.
When looking at Elo ratings, Lajovic’s overall Elo is 134 points above Ugo Carabelli’s and his clay-court Elo is 148 points higher.
Pick: Lajovic -3.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Laslo Djere (-420) vs Joao Sousa (+280)
2 p.m. ET
Djere last played in Rio, where he fell in the second round 2-6, 4-6 to Dusan Lajovic. Djere struggled against Lajovic’s return, winning just 51% of his service points and getting broken four times. On return, he did hold Lajovic to 48% of his second serves won, but Lajovic won 76% of his first serves.
While Djere is just 2-2 during this season’s Golden Swing, he did make good of a tough draw in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Carlos Alcaraz. Traditionally, Djere is a strong clay courter, with an impressive 272-134 career-record on the dirt.
His recent Lajovic match aside, Djere has a big, well-placed first serve and hits his forehand with controlled aggression, hitting from this wing with consistency and pace. And the Serb’s backhand is solid, as well.
Sousa struggled in his most match in Rio, losing 0-6, 2-6 to Hugo Dellien. Sousa was a disaster on serve, winning just 39% of his service points and getting broken in five of seven service games. Dellien won 90% of his first serves and 73% of his service points overall, not getting broken all match.
Sousa started the Golden Swing with a couple wins in Cordoba, but has now lost three-straight (clay) matches. While the Portuguese is historically a strong clay-court player, with a 326-251 record on clay as a professional, he has slowed down in recent years.
Sousa has gone 16-25 on clay since the start of 2020 for a reason: He doesn’t move quite as well and doesn’t get as much out of his groundstrokes. Sousa’s traditionally-strong forehand has lost some of its zip and his backhand has become more erratic than before.
Djere will capitalized on Sousa’s decline. The Serb has the better serve, better groundstrokes and he can match Sousa’s physicality from the baseline.
Djere will dictate play with his forehand, targeting the Portuguese’s weaker backhand. And, even when Sousa gets forehands, he won’t have the bite from this wing to consistently trouble the Serb.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Djere’s overall Elo is 161.9 points above Sousa’s and his clay-court Elo is 157.2 points higher.
Pick: Sousa to NOT win a set (-120 via FanDuel)
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