BNP Paribas Open Quarterfinal Preview & Best Bets: Picks for Bet Basilashvili vs. Tsitsipas and Zverev vs. Fritz (Oct. 15)
Credit: Clive Brunskill, Getty. Alexander Zverev celebrates at the BNP Paribas Open.
- The BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals roll on Friday with two matches: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili and Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz
- Here's how Avery Zimmerman is betting today's slate of tennis.
The second day of quarterfinal play at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is upon us.
Two of the top five players in the world will take the court as Alexander Zverev takes on Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas battles Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Here’s how I’m viewing the Friday matchups.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing matches.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-500) vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili (+350)
2:00 p.m. ET
Tsitsipas comes into the match after a really nice win over Alex de Minaur. While the Greek was a heavy favorite against the Aussie, de Minaur put on an impressive ball-striking display that would’ve gotten him through nearly everyone on the tour.
The world No. 3 was able to dig deep and break down one of the best defensive players in the world. This round, however, he’ll be dealing with a completely different player. While de Minaur possesses a solid all-around game that relies on consistency, Basilashvili aims to hit through opponents with massive power.
When in-form, the Georgian hits the ball as hard as anyone on tour, with easy power all over the court. He’s been able to cause Tsitsipas problems in the past, taking a set in both of their prior meetings which came on hard courts. The issue for Basilashvili lies in his inconsistency from event to event, but when he finds his rhythm he is an extremely tough out.
That type of style has allowed him to win two titles on the year, but it’s also resulted in 10 first-round losses. At this point in a tournament, you get better value with Basilashvili, and he’s in a solid spot to compete with Tsitsipas, who has dropped a set in two consecutive matches.
Back Basilashvili to push Tsitsipas if you can get him to win a set at a reasonable number. That prop is +130 at PointsBet, I would bet it down to +125.
Pick: Nikoloz Basilashvili to win a set (+130)
Alexander Zverev (-550) vs. Taylor Fritz (+390)
3:20 p.m. ET
With no member of the ‘Big 3’ appearing in another Masters 1000 event, Zverev is one player that has been able to assert his dominance on tour. With two Masters titles already to his name in 2021, he’s put himself in prime position to win another in Indian Wells after putting on some great performances against Jenson Brooksby, Andy Murray and Gael Monfils.
There’s no question that Zverev maintains one of the best ground stroke combinations in the world, and it finally appears that he’s (largely) eradicated his double fault problems in these events. It’s to be determined if he can break through in a slam, but in Masters 1000s there may be no one better than the German.
On the other side of the court is a player that has newfound confidence and courage. Fritz has been able to assert himself against some of the biggest hitting players in the world in Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini, and the American hasn’t dropped a set all tournament.
Nevertheless, Zverev is a different level of test. Fritz has competed well with him in the past, but on a surface as slow as the one in Indian Wells, he could struggle to generate winners. If Zverev shows the patience and counter-striking that he has all tournament, he should have no issue with Fritz.
But the odds reflect that, and because of it it’s hard to generate a play. Zverev is in the range of -170 to win in two sets, and it’s just not worth paying that type of juice or taking a risk on the spread. Rather, I would leave this match alone.
Pick: No bet