Friday French Open Odds & Picks: Best Bets For Trevisan-Saville & Mertens-Gracheva (May 27)
Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Elise Mertens
The third round of the French Open is set to begin and there are plenty of exciting, value-filled matches to look forward to!
Read below for two plays to think about from Friday at Roland Garros.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Martina Trevisan (-165) vs. Daria Saville (+128)
6:20 a.m. ET
Martina Trevisan is in excellent form coming into this third-round match. Trevisan has won seven matches in a row and took down Magda Linette 6-3, 6-2 to reach the third round in Paris.
Against both Linette and her first-round opponent, Harriet Dart, Trevisan won over 50% of her first-serve return points and over 55% of her second-serve return points. Trevisan broke serve 11 times in these two matches while only getting broken twice herself.
The Italian won her first WTA Tour title on the clay of Rabat last week and has won 69% of her career clay-court matches. Trevisan dictates well with her heavy, lefty forehand, getting great depth from that wing.
However, since May 16th, Trevisan has played seven matches and fatigue could set in soon.
Daria Saville has turned her clay season around in Paris. In the second round, Saville defeated Petra Kvitova 6-4, 6-2.
She has returned well in both of her Roland Garros matches so far. Looking at her first-round match against Valentini Grammatikopoulou and her match against the big-serving Kvitova, Saville won a combined 50% of her first-serve returns and 54% of her second-serve returns.
She ramped up her serving efficiency against Kvitova, winning 83% of her first serves.
While Saville was 0-3 on the season on clay and had won just 55% of her professional clay-court matches coming into Roland Garros, she has a lot of potential on the surface. Saville moves very well and counterpunches at a high level. She has the heavy forehand, steady backhand and gets good consistent depth on her groundstrokes. And, Saville rarely tires out on court.
Trevisan has the higher clay-court Elo rating, but Saville has the higher overall Elo. The Italian is in great form and hitting her forehand well. However, given that we just saw Saville neutralize the big Kvitova lefty forehand, I think it will be hard for Trevisan to hit through Saville from the baseline.
Look for Saville to keep this one close.
Pick: Saville +2.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)
Elise Mertens (-240) vs. Varvara Gracheva (+180)
6:30 a.m. ET
Elise Mertens was fortunate when Marie Bouzkova gave her a walkover in the second round of Roland Garros. In the first round, Mertens had defeated Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-3, 6-1.
Against Ruse, Mertens won 78% of the points on her first serve and hit 17 winners compared to 14 unforced errors. On return, Mertens won 63% of her return points, breaking serve six times in eight Ruse service games.
While Mertens had been struggling with her depth and offensive play since coming back from an injury in Istanbul, she found her form against Ruse.
When Mertens is playing well, she hits patiently with depth until she has her opening to strike. Mertens is generally a good player on clay, with a 92-53 career record on clay.
Varvara Gracheva has had a solid clay-court season, going 10-6 so far on the dirt. At Roland Garros, Gracheva has managed to pull off two three-set victories over Astra Sharma and Ajla Tomljanovic.
Neither Sharma nor Tomljanovic were able to win 65% of their first-serve points against Gracheva’s return game.
Despite this, Gracheva didn’t play particularly impressive tennis in either match, winning 61% of her service points and just 41% of her return points. Gracheva’s ability to win key points got her those victories.
Gracheva gets decent depth, moves the ball around the court well and is fairly consistent. This has allowed her to win 70% of her career matches on clay.
However, when opponents attack Gracheva and press her for time, her groundstrokes can break down and she doesn’t have a high level of power.
Mertens does everything at a higher level compared to Gracheva, which helps explain why her overall Elo rating is 155.9 points better than the Russian’s and her clay-court Elo is 207.8 points higher.
The Belgian is more consistent from the baseline, is able to better defuse her opponents’ power and can generate better controlled aggression of her own. Gracheva has done well to take advantage of a weaker draw, but will struggle to hurt Mertens here.
Pick: Mertens -3.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
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