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Jule Niemeier vs. Heather Watson Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Pick (July 3)

Jule Niemeier vs. Heather Watson Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Pick (July 3) article feature image
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Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: Heather Watson.

  • Jule Niemeier is favored to beat Heather Watson in the round of 16 at Wimbledon.
  • Watson is the lone remaining British woman at the draw.
  • Read on for Jon Reid's betting analysis of the match.

Looking for betting analysis of Niemeier’s quarterfinal? Click here!

Niemeier vs. Watson Odds

Niemeier Odds -200
Watson Odds +160
Over/Under 21.5
Time | How to Watch 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

The fourth round is upon us from Wimbledon and Brit Heather Watson will take on Jule Niemeier as they open play on Centre Court this Sunday.

Watson has been priced up as the underdog for the third straight match. Can she pull off another upset to the delight of the home crowd? Or is her run coming to an end?

Let’s take a look at which of those scenarios is more likely.

Niemeier Taking Advantage Of Grass Courts

It’s been a rather strong grass-court season for the 22-year-old German. Three of her four wins have come in dominant fashion (the fourth in three sets last round against Lesia Tsurenko) and her two losses have both come in three-set contests against Belinda Bencic and Daria Kasatkina.

With a power-centric that has really played up on the slick courts, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Niemeier has an ace rate the last few weeks around 10% and has won two thirds of her first serve points, allowing her to find holds of serve at a relatively consistent rate.

She has a return game that yields about 40% of points won, as Niemeier is able to put an incredible amount of pressure on her opponents’ serve. That is also likely to lead to some mental pressure, knowing finding breaks of serve against her is a tough task.

Watson Looking To Keep Win Streak Going

Now in her third consecutive match as an underdog, Watson looks to open action on Centre Court with a win on home soil.

While she has a similar record to her opponent during this grass season (4-2, as opposed to 5-3), her run to the fourth round has certainly been more of a surprise.

Watson isn’t necessarily a defender or lacking in power, but her pace isn’t overwhelming and isn’t at the level of Niemeier.

In terms of form, she’s impressed in the last two rounds, but losses to Tsurenko, Rebecca Marino and Viktorija Golubic in the lead-up to Wimbledon and the opening round matchup being so close against Tamara Korpatsch certainly aren’t reassuring results.

We saw the power game of Marino beat Watson in straights and with Niemeier possessing similar pace on her serve and groundstrokes, and moving a bit better than the tall Canadian, it’ll be interesting to see how Watson matches up this time around.

Betting Value

While Watson’s last two matches have been impressive – particularly the way she’s played tight first sets and then come out and dominated the second set – I’m not sold on her being able to pull off the upset for a third consecutive round.

Niemeier is the best server she’s seen to this point of the tournament and her error-prone ways costing her a break or two each set could very well spell doom for her.

If Niemeier was a bit more one-dimensional in her game style, I’d be inclined to pass on this one, but with the return game having been strong this grass-court season, I’m going to side with the German to cover this spread.

The relatively close hold plus break numbers would be slightly concerning, but looking at an Elo Rating of about 100 points higher, it confirms that she’s amassed those numbers against more quality opposition.

Pick: Niemeier -2.5 games (-125)

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