Oscar Otte vs. Chun Hsin Tseng Australian Open Preview, Odds and Best Bet (Jan. 16)
Al Bello/Getty. Oscar Otte hits a serve at the US Open.
Oscar Otte vs. Chun Hsin Tseng
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An interesting matchup in the first round of the Australian Open comes between two players that will be making their first appearance in the main draw of the event.
Both Oscar Otte and Chun Hsin Tseng will be sharing the first-time experience, but they took much different routes in getting there. The German had a breakout season in 2021 where he won four main draw slam matches, while Tseng was awarded a wild card for the event and has only played in one grand slam match prior to this event.
How will the two fare in the match?
Otte Coming Off of Breakthrough Year
One of the biggest stories on the men’s side of the US Open was the man who made the fourth round after getting through the qualifying draw. That wasn’t Otte’s only breakthrough of the year, however.
He won a match at Wimbledon and pushed the home favorite Andy Murray to five sets in the second round there, and he gave Alexander Zverev all he could handle in the first round of the French Open.
But Otte’s year didn’t end there. After the US Open, he went on to win three Challenger titles and really establish himself as a dominant server. Otte’s Elo rating on hard courts is 1686, 100 points higher than his Elo on clay and similar to the level of a player like Ugo Humbert.
Otte’s year didn’t get off to the best start, with a 1-2 record in Australian Open warm-up events, but he’ll be more than ready to maintain his same imposing style of tennis when he steps on court. There’s really no other way for Otte to do it.
Tseng Looking to Take Advantage of Big Opportunity
The 20-year old had a strong 2021, winning two titles, including the Maia 2 Challenger at the end of the year. A 30-15 record on clay showed he can be a high-level player on the surface, but Tseng only played 19 matches on hard courts, posting a 9-10 record.
In his only other grand slam match, Tseng fell to the American Tommy Paul in the first round of Wimbledon qualifying. He relies on a baseline game that emphasizes consistency and patience, but he lacks the ability to get many free points off of his serve.
It will be interesting to see how Tseng adjusts to the typically speedy courts that are present in Melbourne Park, and he’ll have a chance to show his 1334 Elo rating on hard courts (in comparison to 1562 on clay) isn’t reflective of the all-court player he can be.
To get into this tournament, Tseng was given a wild card, and it was a bit of a surprise in all reality. A win against Otte would prove tournament directors right in giving him the chance.
When you have an unproven player getting a chance without too much of a background on a surface, it’s hard to discern exactly how he’ll play.
With that being said, having observed Tseng’s level on the Challenger level and comparing that to what Otte has achieved on fast courts, there’s no question that the value here lies with the German.
I’m not sure how Tseng will be able to match the free points that Otte will create on serve, and it’ll cause a lot of pressure to be placed on his own service games. While the Maia Challenger is a surface nothing like the Australian Open’s Tseng’s nine aces over five matches won’t get the job done against Otte.
Back the 2021 standout to open his 2022 campaign in good form and handle Tseng with relative ease.
Pick: Otte -1.5 sets (-125)