Rafael Nadal vs. Botic van de Zandschulp Odds, Preview Prediction (May 27)

Rafael Nadal vs. Botic van de Zandschulp Odds, Preview Prediction (May 27) article feature image

NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Rafael Nadal.

Nadal vs. Van de Zandschulp Odds

Nadal Odds-2500
van de Zandschulp Odds+925
Time8 a.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World No. 5 Rafael Nadal had no troubles beating Corentin Moutet in the second round of Roland Garros. He'll have a chance to advance further after a matchup with Botic van de Zandschulp.

Can the 13-time Roland Garros champion continue to dominate his competition in Paris?

Let's dive into this third round match.

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Nadal Cruising Through Draw

Nadal beat up on an underpowered Moutet like he has so many other players at the French Open over the years. He won 72% of his first-serve points and was only broken twice all match. Nadal hit 27 winners compared to 22 unforced errors and won 19-of-25 points at the net.

On return, Nadal was even more dominant. He won 48% of his return points, including 61% of the points on Moutet's second serve.

Nadal was able to play like this in the first round too. Against Jordan Thompson, Nadal won 75% of his service points, 54% of his return points, broke serve seven times and had a positive winner/unforced error ratio.

He's so good about using his famous lefty forehand to control the baseline. Nadal makes very few unforced errors and hits with remarkable placement around the court. His backhand is also solid and the Nadal can hit with controlled aggression from that wing.

The Spaniard's defensive and counterpunching abilities make him one of the toughest players on tour to hit through, and Nadal is still great when in offensive positions on the court.

To even come close to beating Nadal at Roland Garros requires playing with controlled aggression, which neither Thompson nor Moutet have. You have to have the power to redline.

However, Botic van de Zandschulp certainly has more power than Thompson and Moutet.

Van de Zandschulp in Good Form

Van de Zandschulp has gone 10-5 in this clay-court season and he's only dropped one set at Roland Garros so far.

In the second round, van de Zandschulp beat Fabio Fognini 6-4, 7-6(2), 3-2 (retirement), coming back from 1-5 down in the second set.

Against both Fognini and van de Zandschulp's first round opponent, Pavel Kotov, the Dutchman played all-around good tennis.

In each match, van de Zandschulp won over 70% of his first-serve points and served at least 60% first-serves in. Dominating behind his first serve and getting quick, free points will be so important against Nadal.

In total contrast to Nadal, this is the furthest that van de Zandschulp has ever gone at the French Open. However, van de Zandschulp reached a maiden final on the clay of Munich and has had success both this season and beyond on the dirt.

Beyond his 10-5 record this year, van de Zandschulp has won 64% of his career matches on clay.

The Dutchman has a big first serve and controls the baseline well with his heavy groundstrokes. He can use his forehand to dictate play, while also having the patience to understand the right time in a given point to attack.

Betting Value

It's very clear that Nadal is head-and-shoulders above van de Zandschulp, especially on clay. While there was some uncertainty regarding Nadal's foot injury, the first two rounds have largely put those concerns to bed.

Despite this, van de Zandschulp is a different type of player than Nadal has faced in the first two rounds. He has power that Thompson and Moutet lack and can get more free points from both his first serve and from the baseline with his big groundstrokes.

Short, easy points are the best way to gain traction against Nadal on clay, and van de Zandschulp has the game to take advantage of this,

With his clay-court patterns, counterpunching and ability to rip through opponents with his forehand, Nadal will ultimately wear his opponent down.

However, van de Zandschulp can absolutely cover this spread with the level of controlled aggression that he brings to the table.

Pick:  van de Zandschulp +9.5 games (-135)

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