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Rafael Nadal vs. Francisco Cerundolo Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (June 28)

Rafael Nadal vs. Francisco Cerundolo Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (June 28) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Rafael Nadal.

  • Rafael Nadal is a massive favorite against Francisco Cerundolo at Wimbledon.
  • Jon Reid breaks down the Tuesday morning match.
  • Read on for his best bet on the lopsided affair.

Nadal vs. Cerundolo Odds

Nadal Odds -5000
Cerundolo Odds +1450
Over/Under 28.5
Time | How to Watch 10 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

The bottom half of the men’s draw at Wimbledon gets going on Tuesday.

After seeing some of the higher seeds fall on the opening day of action, Rafael Nadal will look to avoid the same fate and join Novak Djokovic in the tournament’s second round – though even the top seed couldn’t get it done in straight sets.

Let’s take a look at the matchup between the legendary Spaniard and his opponent, Francisco Cerundolo.

Nadal Beginning Quest For Calendar Slam

Being halfway to the calendar Grand Slam, Nadal gets his campaign for the third of the four majors on Tuesday on Centre Court after women’s No. 1 Iga Swiatek gets going.

Not having played professionally on the grass since bowing out at the semifinal stage at Wimbledon in 2019, the pair of matches Nadal got under his belt at the Hurlingham exhibition last week will surely have helped the Spaniard acclimate to the surface.

It also helps to have someone as inexperienced on the grass as Cerundolo, who’s been better than anticipated, but will still be in tough against the record-holder in major titles won.

Nadal is known for his absolute domination on the red clay courts, where his combination of topspin and pace make him practically unbeatable, but Nadal’s prowess on the grass is still elite.

With an Elo Rating of 11th on tour on grass courts and a hold plus break percentage above 115% in each of the last three grass seasons he played, Nadal should be able to advance with ease through his first-round matchup.

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Cerundolo Facing Stern Test

As mentioned above, Nadal’s numbers present a massive obstacle for someone still relatively new to grass-court play.

While he has picked up some wins, he’s still just a .500 player on grass. With all three of his wins coming against poor grass-court competition, the more inspiring results have actually been the relatively close losses to Ryan Peniston and Tommy Paul.

Both men are at least somewhat comfortable on the surface, but lacking major weapons, the step up to Nadal is going to be tough in several regards.

First, finding breaks against Nadal, relative to Paul and Peniston, will be much tougher. Nadal’s hold rate in each of his last three seasons on grass exceeded 90%.

That’s before considering the fact that Nadal can really target the ever-erratic backhand wing of the Argentinian.

Cerundolo also loses the athleticism edge he possesses against so many. Nadal is the greatest athlete the sport has ever seen.

It also allows Nadal to wait out the unforced errors that can be so common in Cerundolo’s game – especially on a much lower-bouncing court.

Betting Value

I’m going to trust the massive edge Nadal has here in just about every facet of the game and take the under.

Nadal only needs to find about one break in each set, so having this total set at 28.5 seems to be a game too high for me.

It will take a level of rally tolerance that the Argentine lacks at this juncture to keep things close, all while needing to find breaks against an elite server on the grass and holding off one of the best returners in the history of the game.

If Nadal can continually pick on the backhand wing of Cerundolo and coax the errors out of him, the second match on Centre Court should be done and dusted quickly.

Pick: Under 28.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)


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