Simona Halep vs. Paula Badosa Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Picks (July 4)

Simona Halep vs. Paula Badosa Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Picks (July 4) article feature image

Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Simona Halep.

  • Former Wimbledon champion Simona Halep is favored to advance past Paula Badosa on Monday.
  • Jon Reid believes the value lies with the Romanian.
  • Read on for his best bet and analysis of the match.

Halep vs. Badosa Odds

Halep Odds-195
Badosa Odds+160
Time | How to Watch10:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

The fourth round is set to finish on what used to be "Manic Monday" from the All England Club.

While the Championships now play on the middle Sunday – much like the other slams – there is still plenty of exciting action set for Monday.

Let's delve into the matchup featuring Simona Halep and Paula Badosa.

Badosa Looking For Best Wimbledon Finish

For the first time since being hurt in her quarterfinal match in Miami against Jessica Pegula, Badosa has managed to win three consecutive matches at a single event.

While the first two against Louisa Chirico and Irina Bara mean little when trying to assess a match against a player of Halep's caliber, beating Petra Kvitova in straight sets on grass is an impressive result.

Badosa exemplified incredible rally tolerance and ability to defend from the baseline, waiting out error after error from her opponent while also using a strong first serve to help save a multitude of break points.

The question becomes, does strong defending and a good first serve translate to a match against Halep?

Badosa will likely need to be more aggressive, while also playing a very clean match from the baseline now that she's playing someone with far more consistency to her game.

Halep Rolling On Grass

After beginning her career 28-15 on grass courts, Halep has quickly become one of the best grass courters on the women's tour.

Added aggression and pace to her game, combined with her incredible returning instincts and movement have become a potent combination on a surface that rewards both power and the ability to move efficiently.

Halep is now 18-2 on grass since the beginning of the 2019 grass season – including winning Wimbledon that season.

Consider a few metrics that Halep has vastly improved upon. Her career ace rate on grass clocks in a t 4.1%. In the last 52 weeks, that number doubles to 8.4%. She's also seen a jump in her first serves won percentage by nearly 7% over the last 52 weeks compared to her career.

That added pace and effectiveness on first serve, along with her elite return game have her positioned well to make another deep run at this year's Championships.

While she was slotted into a tough second quarter, avoiding an in-form Kvitova that profiled as someone more likely to be able to overpower her from the baseline gives her hopes at another slam a boost. While Badosa is not to be taken lightly, Halep is a more than a deserved favorite in this tilt.

Betting Value

There are a few things that stand out here in Halep's favor.

First, Badosa played a strong match against Kvitova, but her serve was still vulnerable and she was able to coax a lot of errors from the Czech. Halep doesn't concede nearly as many free points as Kvitova and her return game is even stronger.

That leads me to believe that Badosa won't be able to escape with only being broken once this time around.

With Halep also possessing significant leads in grass Elo Rating (nearly 150 points), as well as first serves won, second serves won, hold plus break percentage and even ace rate, this spread should be north of four games.

Picks: Halep -3.5 games (+100)

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