Wednesday US Open Odds, Picks | Sorribes Tormo vs Wang, Muchova vs Frech Predictions (August 30)
Matthew Stockman/Getty. Pictured: Sara Sorribes Tormo.
The second round of the US Open is here and should bring plenty more exciting matches!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups: Sorribes Tormo vs Wang and Muchova vs Frech.
Read on for my Wednesday US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Wednesday US Open Picks
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-180) vs Xinyu Wang (+146)
12:20 p.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo defeated Anhelina Kalinina 6-4, 7-5 to kick off her US Open campaign. Sorribes Tormo won just 46% of her service points, getting broken on six occasions. However, the Spaniard won an astonishing 60% of her return points, breaking eight times in 11 return games.
Sorribes Tormo, who won a WTA Cleveland title last week and is currently on a six-match winning streak, is now 7-2 on hard courts this season. Sorribes Tormo is a solid 127-108 on the surface for her career. She is ultra-fit, quick and anticipates well. Sorribes Tormo spreads the court well, usually places the ball effectively and makes few unforced errors. Her variety is strong, particularly her backhand slice, and she absorbs pace effectively.
Xinyu Wang beat Katie Volynets 6-3, 6-4 in the first round. Wang won 75% of her service points, getting broken just once. On return, Wang won 50% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Wang has won 10 of her last 11 matches – all on hard – with an ITF $100k title in Landisville. With that said, most of Wang's wins during this stretch have occurred against lower-level competition. Wang has a well-placed, fairly powerful first serve and can dictate baseline play at times, particularly with her forehand. Wang, a former Roland Garros doubles champion, is also strong at the net.
However, Wang's slices and touch shots are questionable and her groundstrokes can self-destruct.
While both players are in good form, Sorribes Tormo has been playing against higher-level competition and has the game to break Wang down. While Volynets is consistent from the ground, she doesn't have the placement, tennis IQ or variety of the Spaniard.
Sorribes Tormo should use her backhand slice to keep the ball out of Wang's strike zone and prevent her from attacking. The Spaniard's defensive and counterpunching skills should also allow her to successfully defend against Wang's attacking groundstrokes, drawing out errors and allowing her to turn defense into offense.
Sorribes Tormo's return is also much stronger than Volynets, so Wang's service games will be much tougher than in the first round.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -2.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
Karolina Muchova (-1200) vs Magdalena Frech (+650)
1 p.m. ET
Karolina Muchova cruised past Storm Hunter 6-4, 6-0 in her opening match. Muchova won 67% of her service points, getting broken just twice, and not facing a break point in the second set. The Czech also won 63% of her return points, breaking six times in eight return games.
Muchova, who recently made the WTA Cincinnati final, is now an incredible 24-8 this year on hard courts. The Czech has a 136-65 caree record on the surface.
She places her serve well with good firepower. Muchova has a dynamic baseline game with easy power, well-placed shots and nasty variety. Muchova's backhand slice is incredibly effective, she is strong at the net and has excellent touch. In addition, she is very athletic. Muchova's decision-making can be questionable, however.
Magdalena Frech survived a topsy-turvy first-round match, defeating Emma Navarro 7-6(10), 1-6, 6-2. Frech won just 50% of her service points, getting broken on six occasions. The Pole did win 49% of her return points, however, breaking five times.
Frech has just a 13-16 record in 2023 on hard courts, although she is 163-122 as a professional on the surface. She doesn't have very much firepower, but she's solid from the baseline and places her shots well. The Pole has a high tennis IQ and understands the right shots to hit, constructing points nicely. French spreads the court effectively.
The problem for Frech is that, against an in-form player with the power of Muchova, there's very little that she can do to hurt her unless the Czech self-destructs.
Muchova has the rally tolerance to match Frech during baseline exchanges while having many more attacking options compared to the Pole. Muchova should get more free points on her serve, dictate from the baseline with controlled aggression and choose her spots to move forward. The Czech has a superior net game and should pressure Frech, picking her shots off at the net.
Finally, Muchova's overall Elo rating is 305.4 points higher than Frech's and her hard-court Elo is 328 points above the Pole's.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-110 via BetMGM)
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