Women’s 2022 Wimbledon Odds & Best Outright Bets: Ostapenko’s Skill Set and Draw Presents Value
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Jelena Ostapenko.
Wimbledon has arrived and despite no ranking points being at the tournament, the players are still ready to fight for the prestigious title.
While 2021 champion Ashleigh Barty has retired and will not defend her title, world No. 1 Iga Swiatek will be looking to extend her 35-match winning streak at the All England Club.
Read on for outright predictions for the 2022 Wimbledon women’s field.
Note: All odds came from FanDuel. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. The full women’s draw can be found here.
Outright Winner
Ons Jabeur (+900)
Jabeur has both a terrific grass-court pedigree and a very manageable draw. The Tunisian made the Wimbledon quarterfinals last season and is an impressive 54-16 on grass in her career.
This season, Jabeur won a WTA title on the grass courts of Berlin, defeating Belinda Bencic in the final. Jabeur also beat other tough opposition in Berlin, including Karolina Muchova and Coco Gauff.
Jabeur was dominant in Berlin, winning 10-of-11 sets she played in the tournament. She won at least 65% of her first-serve points in every match, and over 70% in four of her five matches.
In addition, none of Jabeur's opponents in Berlin won 70% of their first-serve points nor 45% of their second-serve points.
Jabeur's game works very well on grass. The Tunisian hits her spots on serve, has a powerful forehand that controls the baseline well and a terrific drop shot that keeps opponents off-balance.
In addition, Jabeur's backhand slice is key for her grass-court success. The slice is consistently well-placed and skids low, out of opponent's strike zones.
Jabeur is also in the weaker half of the draw. While she might have to play giant-killer Kaia Kanepi in the third round, Kanepi has not looked great on grass this season, going just 1-2 on grass in 2022. Nonetheless, Kanepi's big game is a worry.
And while Jabeur might have to face Angelique Kerber in the round of 16, the former Wimbledon champion is not nearly the player that she once was. In the other section of Jabeur's quarter, the two highest seeds, Danielle Collins and Emma Raducanu, have gone a combined 0-1 this grass-court season.
At +900, this seems like a good price to get behind one of the best grass-court players in the draw.
Jelena Ostapenko (+2100)
Jelena Ostapenko is looking very dangerous at the moment and she has a draw conducive for a long stay in London.
Ostapenko is currently in the final of Eastbourne, having easily taken out Camila Giorgi in the semifinals, 6-2, 6-2. She has not dropped a set in Eastbourne coming into the final, having won at least 70% of her service points in every match she's played.
This has helped Ostapenko only get broken four times in her four matches this week.
In addition, none of Ostapenko's four opponents this week have won 70% of their first-serve points and she's broken serve a minimum of three times in every match.
Even Ostapenko's round of 16 loss to Dayana Yastremska in Birmingham is not a bad loss, given the intense firepower that Yastremska possesses.
Ostapenko is 37-17 on grass in her career, with the grass accentuating her already-powerful game. Ostapenko plays a low-margin game, but when she's in-form, she's nearly unplayable from the baseline. She has extreme power from both wings and can rip winners from seemingly-neutral positions in points.
The vast majority of the matches that Ostapenko plays are entirely on her racquet. She's going to either win the match if she's able to find a rhythm from the baseline, or lose it because of her own unforced errors.
Ostapenko's draw is very favorable. Her potential seeded third-round opponent is clay-courter Martina Trevisan, who is not a threat on grass. The highest seed in her eighth of the draw is No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari, who is also not at her best on the grass.
The highest seed in Ostapenko's overall quarter is the out-of-form No. 2 seed Anett Kontaveit. Given that Ostapenko is in the weaker half of the draw, it feels as if this is the perfect opportunity for Ostapenko to go on a deep run at Wimbledon.
So, while there's always a chance Ostapenko throws in a stinker of a match at any point, the value is certainly there for her at +2100 to win the tournament.
Bianca Andreescu (+3000)
While Bianca Andreescu has a tough draw, she has massive potential on grass and could rip through this field if she finds her stride.
Andreescu is currently into the final of Bad Homburg, as Simona Halep withdrew from their semifinal match, but she's still had an incredible week of tennis.
She has not lost a set in her three matches this week, winning a combined 66% of her second-serve return points in Bad Homburg.
This has helped the Canadian to break serve a total of 14 times. It's been a masterclass of returning from Andreescu and the Canadian does a great job of being aggressive and pressuring her opponents from the start of the point.
Even during Andreescu's previous tournament in Berlin, where she fell to Karolina Pliskova in the round of 16, she looked like a contender on grass.
Andreescu won 62% of her second-serve points and held the big-serving Pliskova to just 43% of her second serves won.
Though Andreescu ultimately fell short in that match, it was a good sign that she was able to play last year's Wimbledon finalist so well.
Andreescu perfectly places her serve and goes big on her groundstrokes, constantly trying to take the initiative in points and be aggressive. Sometimes, she is a bit too aggressive in her approach, but her mindset on court is the right one.
She also has the variety that is so important on grass. Her slices knife through the court and she has excellent touch that can make opponents very uncomfortable.
It won't be an easy draw for Andreescu, with either Shuai Zhang or Elena Rybakina in the second round. In addition, Andreescu is in Iga Swiatek's quarter of the draw. It's also true that Andreescu has only played 26 matches on grass as a professional, going 17-9 so far.
However, if Andreescu can continue to strike the ball like she has during the grass-court swing, she is a massive contender for the title at Wimbledon. Given her level of play and potential to put it all together over the next couple of weeks, +3000 is a good price to grab Andreescu at.
Leave: Iga Swiatek (+155)
Yes, I am aware that Swiatek is on a 35-match winning streak. And I know she has a straightforward start to the tournament at the All England Club.
However, I just don't trust Swiatek on grass yet, and at +160, with Jabeur next-closest at +750, the Pole feels overvalued.
Swiatek has not played since her Roland Garros title, meaning she has no grass-court preparation coming into Wimbledon. It's not as if Swiatek has years of grass experience that she can fall back on. In Swiatek's career, she is just 7-5 on grass, having played six matches on the surface since 2019.
It's hard to say, given such a small sample size, how Swiatek will do at Wimbledon this year. Yes, she's red-hot at the moment, but grass-court tennis is a completely different animal compared to hard courts or clay and the skill sets necessary to succeed do not always match up.
Swiatek has a heavy forehand that stays deep in the court and is typically hard for opponents to handle. But with the grass often blunting the effectiveness opponents' topspin, how much damage Swiatek's forehand will do at Wimbledon remains to be seen.
Her slice and her net play, while not weaknesses, are also not strengths of her game.
While it's possible that Swiatek, due to her talent level and ability to play with controlled aggression from both wings, might be able to still fly through this draw, I think that at +155, the value just isn't there.
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