WTA Doha Tennis Picks & Predictions: Our 2 Top Bets for Badosa vs. Tauson & Cornet vs. Sabalenka
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka plays a backhand against Storm Sanders at the Australian Open.
- Two of the top four women in the WTA rankings will be in action on Tuesday in Doha.
- Aryna Sabalenka faces Alize Cornet while Paula Badosa is favored against Clara Tauson.
- David Gertler breaks down these matchups and shares his best bets below.
The tennis in Doha this week has already been outstanding, and that will surely continue on Tuesday in the Middle East.
While there are plenty of fascinating matches to watch, two of them caught my attention as potential spots where we can find value.
Read on for analysis of two strong plays from Doha.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Paula Badosa (-225) vs. Clara Tauson (+170)
6:00 a.m. ET, WTA Doha
Paula Badosa struggled in her first match after the Australian Open, losing her Dubai opener in three sets to Elena Gabriela Ruse.
Badosa won just 49% of her second serves, getting broken five times over the course of the match. Badosa struggled to play with controlled aggression, allowing Ruse to control the baseline, which forced the Spaniard to be too defensive. Badosa's rally tolerance also wasn't where it needed to be to win that match.
Dubai was the first tournament back for Badosa since the Australian Open, which saw her go out in the round of 16 with a meek performance against Madison Keys. Badosa will be looking to turn things around in this match.
Clara Tauson, however, will be trying to rain on Badosa's parade. Tauson already beat world number 22 Belinda Bencic in this tournament, winning that match the in three sets.
Against Bencic, Tauson won 60% of her second serve points and held Bencic to only 48% of the points won on her second serve. Tauson hit seven aces compared to one double fault and did a great job of balancing hitting deep into the court with having an aggressive mindset on the court.
Tauson made a lot of tennis fans and media members pay attention when she upset Anett Kontaveit in the second round of the Australian Open. The Dane is certainly mentally tough and won't be intimidated that Badosa is ranked at world number four.
Badosa is a good baseline player who is solid in every facet of her game and has a high tennis IQ. However, Tauson has done a great job of playing with controlled aggression this year, and her game smothered Bencic, with the Swiss playing more defensively than she would have liked.
When looking at Elo ratings, while Badosa has the third-highest overall Elo, which is over 115 points higher than Tauson's. The Spaniard and Dane's hard court Elo's are within 40 points of one another.
Overall, this match is closer than the odds would suggest, and 3.5 games are too many to be giving Tauson in this matchup.
Pick: Tauson +3.5 games (-110 via BetMGM)
Alize Cornet (+210) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (-280)
11:00 a.m. ET, WTA Doha
Alize Cornet has had a very strong start to the season. She made the Australian Open quarterfinals before falling to Danielle Collins and played an excellent first match in Doha. She beat Ludmilla Samsonova from a set down, showcasing excellent counterpunching and consistent depth.
In the match against Samsonova, Cornet won 46% of her return points and did a great job extending rallies and forcing the Russian, who plays with very little margin for error, to overhit.
Cornet is in a great rhythm from the baseline this season. She understands the importance of staying patient in rallies and knows when to strike. She's doing a great job utilizing her backhand as a weapon.
On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka has not played near her best tennis this season, although she did win a round in Dubai against Marta Kostyuk before losing against Petra Kvitova in the round of 16.
Sabalenka is improving in terms of double faults, hitting three aces compared to nine double faults against Kostyuk and zero aces compared to six double faults against Kvitova. However, the Belarusian still won fewer than 45% of her second serves in both of those matches.
Sabalenka is still not as consistent as she used to be from the baseline. Huge winners come alongside horrid errors, and it often feels like roulette whether Sabalenka will crush a ball onto the line or not even be close to hitting it into play.
This is an interesting matchup stylistically, as Sabalenka is so aggressive from the baseline, while Cornet prefers counterpunching.
However, Sabalenka is still way too erratic from the baseline, and with the depth and precision that Cornet was hitting with against Samsonova, Sabalenka is going to hit many unforced errors and become frustrated.
Against a player with Cornet's skill set, Sabalenka will struggle to win this match, let alone cover 4.5 games.
Trust the Frenchwoman to cover this line.
Pick: Cornet +4.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
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