WTA Guadalajara Odds, Picks | Stearns vs Dolehide, Potapova vs Arango (September 18)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Anastasia Potapova.
The WTA Guadalajara Masters has begun and the quality of tennis has been unbelievable so far!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Stearns vs Dolehide and Potapova vs Arango.
Read on for my WTA Guadalajara picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Guadalajara Odds, Picks
Peyton Stearns (-250) vs Caroline Dolehide (+190)
1 p.m. ET
Peyton Stearns last played at the US Open, where she made the round of 16 but fell 7-6(3), 3-6, 2-6 to Marketa Vondrousova. Stearns won just 51% of her service points, getting broken on seven occasions. But, the American did win 52% of her second-serve returns and broke four times.
Stearns is now an impressive 22-9 this season on hard courts, with a strong 92-52 career-record on hard. The American has a fairly big, well-placed first serve. She follows this up with a heavy forehand that dictates play. Stearns has a high tennis IQ and positions herself well. She's also a decent mover and has good anticipation. However, Stearns' backhand can sometimes go awry and her variety is lacking.
Caroline Dolehide most recently competed in San Diego, losing 6-7(4), 2-6 to Louisa Chirico in the opening qualifying round. Dolehide, despite winning 64% of her first serves, won just 38% of her second serves and was broken four times. She did win 59% of her second-serve returns and broke twice.
Dolehide is 14-11 record on hard courts this year, with a solid 144-111 mark on the surface as a professional. She has a huge first serve and a heavy forehand. The American take the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her power and is strong at the net, understanding the right times to move forward.
With that said, Dolehide's rally tolerance from both wings is suspect, but particularly her backhand. In addition, she struggles with her movement and is poor on defense.
Stearns is the more dynamic athlete with better controlled aggression. She is quicker than Dolehide and is stronger on defense. Stearns can absorb pace and counterpunch at a much higher level than Dolehide.
The altitude should help both of their serves, but I trust Stearns to handle the altitude better from the baseline, as she has better control from the ground. On the other hand, the altitude should make Dolehide, an already-inconsistent player, even more erratic baseline player than she was before.
Finally, Stearns' overall Elo rating is 184.6 points higher than Dolehide's and her hard-court Elo is 170.3 points higher than her's.
Pick: Stearns -3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
Anastasia Potapova (-500) vs Emiliana Arango (+375)
5 p.m. ET
Anastasia Potapova most recently made the quarterfinals of San Diego, but fell 2-6, 3-6 to Sofia Kenin. She made just 46% of her first serves, hit 15 double faults, won 45% of her service points and was broken six times. The Russian did win 40% of her return points, breaking twice.
Potapova is 18-13 on hard in 2023, with a 115-88 career-record on the surface. The Russian's game is centered around her powerful forehand that she uses to control the baseline. Potapova plays aggressive tennis, going after her shots and putting herself in offensive positions on the court.
However, as was clear in San Diego, Potapova is not confident in her second serve and is struggling with her rally tolerance. Both of Potapova's groundstrokes were way too inconsistent to trust her.
Emiliana Arango most recently played in US Open qualifying, losing 6-4, 4-6, 6-7(8) in the second round to Viktoria Hruncakova. Arango won 62% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The Colombian did win 45% of her second-serve returns, although she was broken four times.
Arango is just 6-6 this season on hard courts, but does have a solid 58-45 record on hard as a professional. The Colombian gets consistent depth from the ground and is quick around the court. She is excellent on defense, absorbing pace and counterpunching effectively. Arango has a heavy forehand that she can dictate with, at times. But, she lacks power, and her backhand is prone to breaking down.
Even in her wins last week, Potapova was far from her best. She played hit-or-miss tennis, exchanging winners with terrible unforced errors. And, as last week was the first time that the Russian won consecutive matches since Wimbledon, it's clear that Potapova has struggled with her consistency for a while.
Potapova hit 30 double faults across her three matches last week and her second-serve struggles are certainly concerning, as well.
Arango doesn't do anything special, but she is quick, defends well and is very consistent. Potapova should struggle to hit through her, getting frustrated and lowering her already-low margins.
Pick: Arango +5.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
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